2026 Comeback Question: Can Kansas City’s Three-Time MVP Rediscover His Deep Ball Magic?
“Do we have time to run Wasp?” In his second year as starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV, Patrick Mahomes asked his offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, if he had time in the pocket to run what would become a legendary play. Trailing 20-10 to the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter, on third and 15 with 7:13 left on the clock, Mahomes hit Tyreek Hill for a 44-yard bomb that would completely flip the energy of the game over to the Chiefs. Kansas City would go on to score three unanswered touchdowns to win 31-20. The play: 23 Jet Chip Wasp, is immortalized in Chiefs Kingdom lore and is the most prominent example of the future Hall of Famer’s ability to throw the ball deep in clutch situations. In Mahomes’ storied career, examples of his legendary ability to get the ball down the field abound, but over the past few years, the Chiefs haven’t been as proficient as they once were with big plays through the air.
The Deep Ball Decline: From Dominance to Doubt
What accounts for this drop-off in passes of 20 yards or more is multifaceted; the decline is a hot topic of debate among Chiefs fans. From 2018 to 2022, Mahomes’ highest passer rating for throws of 20 yards or more was 121.1 in 2020, while his lowest was 97.1 in 2019. In 2023, his rating was 49.1, and in 2024, it was 78.7. In 2025, however, after a massive dip in the two previous years, the three-time Super Bowl MVP had a passer rating for throws of 20 yards or more that was 105.8 for balls thrown down the center of the field. A huge improvement, however, there’s a caveat. When throwing down the field outside the numbers, the former Texas Red Raider completed just 12 passes out of 40 attempts, a 36.7 passer rating.
Cracks in the Armor: Protection Problems Up Front
The inconsistency of long throws since 2023 can be attributed to an offensive line not gelling since Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie were traded at the end of the 2022 season, followed by the trade of All-Pro Joe Thuney in 2025. Replacements such as Jawaan Taylor, Donovan Smith, and the drafting of a still-developing Kingsley Suamataia, in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, have not resulted in consistent pass protection. Though the mauler in motion was much improved in 2025. Josh Simmons, the offensive tackle taken in the first round of the 2025 draft, was away from the team for over 20 days due to a personal matter and then was on injured reserve to close the 2025 season after injuring his wrist. While Kansas City has an elite center in All-Pro Creed Humphrey and a Pro-Bowler in Trey Smith at guard, it is the tackle position that has been the issue for the Chiefs. The face of the modern NFL offense was sacked 34 times last year, the second most of his career, and was under duress by opposing defenses consistently. This constant pressure affected the time he had in the pocket to deliver the deep ball accurately. Mahomes also had the tendency to hold onto the ball during extended plays, which increased pressure and put more stress on an offensive line that was already struggling.
Life After Tyreek: A Receiver Room in Flux
Another factor is the inconsistency of the receiving corps since trading Hill to the Miami Dolphins in 2022. The five-time All-Pro speedster was the last true primary receiver Mahomes had and was a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses along with Travis Kelce. Since losing the former West 'Bama tiger, the Chiefs have had a patchwork receiver room, which includes DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and others. While the Chiefs did win two more Super Bowls after the return specialist’s departure, it was their dominating defenses that were the tip of the spear in those campaigns. In 2025, not one KC wide receiver had more than 600 receiving yards. Dropped balls were prevalent, as well as an inability to get separation from defensive backs. Along with several injuries and the suspension of Rashee Rice for 6 weeks to start the year, the Chiefs’ passing game faced serious adversity.
A Shift in Identity: From Explosive to Efficient
When Hill was traded to the white sandy beaches of Miami, Kansas City went to a quick pass game that cut down on the big splash plays, and thus Mahomes’ long pass numbers. This was an effective strategy, but in the long run, without a consistent run game or consistent deep threat, the Chiefs became one-dimensional on offense. In 2025, the perfect storm of an offensive line weak at the tackle position, consistent pressure, a wide receiver room in disarray, and a run game no opposing defense really feared, resulted in a 6-11 season, the worst of the two-time MVP's career. However, with a new focus on a run game with the signing of Kenneth Walker III and the selection of Emmett Johnson, who many consider the second-best running back of the 2026 NFL Draft, it seems the Chiefs have another storm brewing. With Chad O’Shea, the three-time Super Bowl-winning receiver coach just hired at Arrowhead, the Chiefs are on the ball on shoring up the receiving room for the 2026 season and beyond. Simmons, the first-round pick at tackle, will be healthy, Suamataia is trending positively in his development, and Humphrey and Smith will be there to anchor the line. Will the Kansas City cannon ever get back to his pre-2022 deep ball numbers? Time will tell, especially after his knee injury, but it appears the Chiefs are on track to do just that.
