2026 NFL Draft Class Lacks First-Round Quarterback Depth
One topic has dominated offseason scouting discussions as the 2026 NFL Draft draws near: the quarterback class lacks the depth at the top that teams have always desired. Although there are several fascinating talents in the group with evident physical prowess and flashes of playmaking ability, very few of them project with genuine first-round appeal, and even fewer have the whole resume needed to support a pick in the top 10. When front offices spend premium draft capital, they usually look for consistent output, high-level decision-making, and demonstrated leadership under pressure. These characteristics seem to be focused on one or two passers in this class rather than spread across a large number of applicants. Discussions about early-draft strategy have changed throughout the league as a result of this reality.
The lone obvious first-round pick on many professional scouting boards is Fernando Mendoza, who leads the class at quarterback. Along with leading the Hoosiers to a National Championship, Mendoza's combination of size, accuracy, poise, and leadership resulted in an outstanding statistical season. He is projected as an early selection because of his mastery of defensive identification and ability to make reliable throws under duress. His profile is seen by teams looking for a reliable signal caller of franchise status as the most secure investment in the class. Mendoza is anticipated to hear his name called early on draft night since quarterback demand frequently promotes polished players.
The class, however, rapidly thins behind Mendoza. The next tier of quarterback prospects is occupied by Alabama's Ty Simpson, who is still among the handful with legitimate late first-round potential. He appeals to organizations looking for developmental upside because of his pro-style structuring experience, arm talent, and physical tenacity. Nevertheless, analysts still doubt his ability to process information quickly in the face of intricate NFL coverages and his reliability in high-pressure scenarios. Despite obvious beginning characteristics, those worries hinder universal first-round confidence. Consequently, Simpson's current prediction is close to the rear half of the first round.
One of the most divisive quarterback assessments in the 2026 class is Garrett Nussmeier, who is ranked further down the board. When used in vertical-based offensive systems, Nussmeier's aggressive downfield vision, remarkable arm strength, and anticipation can result in explosive passing production. For teams looking to prioritize upside at the position, those playmaking moments keep him squarely in the late first-round mix. However, his overall forecast is complicated by periods of inconsistent accuracy, poor decision-making under duress, and fluctuating week-to-week efficiency. Due to such developmental concerns, he is seen by many evaluators as a talent who, depending on pre-draft performance and team philosophy, might be selected on the second day of the NFL Draft. Whether he is selected in the first round may ultimately depend on his late-season tape, interviews, and strong workouts.
While equally fascinating, prospects like Drew Allar and Carson Beck project more squarely into the second day of the draft territory. In contrast to creative playmaking, teams looking for a structured offensive operation are drawn to Beck's rhythm passing and structural discipline. Despite his conventional size and arm strength, Allar's enthusiasm has been dampened by inconsistent performance and sluggish growth reads. The first-round discussion might be more seriously challenged by both in a more competitive quarterback class. Rather, they fit the profile of developmental starters who might provide value over time without requiring high draft pick prices. Their landing positions will probably be determined by roster patience and coaching stability.
Although several players in the 2026 quarterback class have genuine starting potential, there is an extraordinarily thin line between developing options and franchise cornerstones. Only one or two quarterbacks are frequently predicted to be taken in the first round, which is explained by that narrow difference. Instead, teams may adopt development-focused methods to recruit quarterbacks later and give priority to premium positions early. According to the rating, this class is serviceable but not very good. The 2026 NFL Draft may provide fewer definitive answers than usual for teams looking for a franchise QB right away.
