2026 Roland Garros is Going Against Every Expectation
Going into this year’s Roland Garros, it was already looking to be a unique Grand Slam. Carlos Alcaraz was the favorite to win earlier this year in February: he was riding off his Australian Open win, making him the youngest player in history to complete the career slam, and he has won Roland Garros twice already. However, 2026 has seen a large number of top players withdrawing from the tournament, including Alcaraz, Arthur Fils, Jack Draper, and Lorenzo Musetti. Despite most of these players leaving primarily due to injuries they sustained, other top players like Aryana Sabalenka considered boycotting the tournament in protest of the low prize money being offered to players. This itself did not happen, but the protest has continued in the media.
When Alcaraz, the French Open favorite and then first-ranked player, withdrew from the tournament, all eyes turned to Jannik Sinner. Sinner was going into the tournament with a 29-match win streak, having recently dominated the clay season, and completing the career golden masters, one of two players in history to do so. Winning Roland Garros would complete his career slam and firmly cement him as one of the best in the game's history. The odds of Sinner winning were hovering around minus 270, the most definitive in the sport’s history. These were better odds than Rafael Nadal ever achieved going into Roland Garros or Roger Federer going into Wimbledon. Sinner may have been the overwhelming favorite after Alcaraz’s exit, but the other major contenders were Alexander Zverev, otherwise known as ‘Sascha,’ and Novak Djokovic. The former is third-ranked in the world but has never won a Grand Slam. Sinner or Alcaraz always seemed to be a roadblock for Zverev in every slam; a win for him would be monumental. Meanwhile, a Djokovic win at the tournament would also make history; he would be breaking two of his own records as the oldest player to win a Grand Slam at age 39, and for most Grand Slams won by a single player at 25.
As the tournament has continued, things have turned out to go completely against expectations. Before the quarter finals, top ten players like Alex De Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, Ben Shelton, Alexander Bublik, Taylor Fritz, and even Djokovic are all out, losing in early rounds to players ranked outside the top 25. The biggest loss of the tournament is Sinner’s loss to Juan Manuel Cerundolo, after being up two sets to none. This has shocked fans as only two players from the top 10 are left before the fourth round is up: Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime. With these developments, fans are placing their bets on ‘Sascha’, but this tournament is wide open for new stars to make a name for themselves. No player still in the tournament has ever won a Grand Slam; this is a golden opportunity without players like Sinner, Alcaraz, or Djokovic. Many are looking at Jakob Mensik after he beat both Andrey Rublev and De Minaur, or Joao Fonseca after he beat both Casper Ruud and Djokovic. The two will be meeting each other in the quarter-finals. The other announced quarter-final match as of now is between Zverev and Rafael Jodar, with Auger-Aliassime being favored to also make it to the next round.
