A Fall from Ace
The Mets success this season has generally mirrored that of their pitching. They both got off to a hot start, looking like one of the better units in baseball, but have since been plagued by inconsistency. Not one pitcher has been more emblematic of this sudden reversal of fortune than Kodai Senga. He started the year right where he left off during his rookie season, where he finished second in Rookie of the Year and seventh in Cy Young voting.
Since then, he has had continuous problems with injuries. However, when healthy, he has performed at an ace-like level, that is, until this recent stretch. He started the year with a sparkling 1.39 ERA, but since his return after the All-Star break, he has sported a 6.56. This is a troubling sign for the international star. Two problems represent his recent struggles.
The first has been with him for most of his career. That is the ability to get deep into games for his job; he averages about five and a half innings per start. Yet since coming back from the injured list, he has averaged under four and a half. This results in non-competitive starts as he has yet to register a win in the same time frame. Another problem that has emerged is the significant number of walks. With almost six BBs per nine innings over the past stretch, it is about double his career number.
This results in a chicken-or-the-egg type of conundrum. As to whether his ability to get deep into games is a result of this increase in walks, or is it just exacerbated by it? What's for sure is that it is tough to string together quality appearances when there is traffic on the bases. So, the question is, are Senga's walks up because batters get hits and are on base, causing him to be extra careful? Or is it that he has lost his command, putting him in a position where he needs to attack hitters because there are men on base, and he is getting hit hard because of it?
Senga does not seem to be having a decrease in his spin rate and strikeout stuff, as his K-rate has stayed constant. Even though the eye-test might disagree, as he hasn't gotten big out pitches when needed lately. So is this a control issue or a confidence issue? Regardless of which one it is, the course of action seems to be the same as the Mets organization has reached out to Senga and his camp as to whether he would be agreeable with an option to the minor leagues. If he accepts this, which is no guarantee that he does, he would go down to Triple-A. They would hopefully, if it is a mechanics or control problem, give it a tweak away from the bright lights of Broadway. If it's a confidence thing, nothing would improve that more than mowing down International League hitters in Syracuse.
As of now, he has yet to agree to this assignment, but the Mets have called up Brandon Sproat to take his turn in the rotation come this weekend. So at the very least, they are skipping his next start. In an ideal world, Senga goes down for the next couple of weeks, regains what he has lost, and is potentially in play for a playoff return. If he goes down and struggles, last week might have been the last time we see Senga in Queens for the foreseeable future.
