Bo Nix: Step Up or Sophomore Slump?
Things have changed dramatically in the Mile High City. The Denver Broncos, who have spent the better part of the last decade as the punching bag of the AFC West, are a winning team once more. While they couldn’t pry the division from the iron fist of the Kansas City Chiefs this year, there is no way to look at their 2024 campaign as anything other than a roaring success. Statistically speaking, the Broncos have actually experienced a miraculous rebirth from a year-long trend of mediocrity.
To put into perspective how a third-place division finish and getting whooped in the Wild Card round could possibly be considered a massive success, one needs to understand where the Broncos have been in the seasons prior. The 2024 season saw the Broncos post a winning record for the first time since 2016, their first playoff appearance since Peyton Manning retired, and their highest point differential in 10 years. The tide seems to have turned substantially in Colorado, thanks in large part to the efforts of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The question remains: Is the immediate future bright under Nix, or should the Broncos hold their horses?
There is enough data to suggest that the Broncos fan base should be excited to see their sophomore quarterback this upcoming season. Nix had an impressive rookie campaign, throwing for almost 3,800 yards, 29 touchdowns, and placing third in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Nix threw for both the most single-season touchdowns and the second-most single-season passing yards of any Broncos QB since Manning. With a receiving corps headed by the impressive Courtland Sutton, a championship-winning coach in Sean Peyton, and a phenomenal defense led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, the sky's the limit for the Broncos heading into the 2025 season.
However, it might be wise to pump the brakes a little bit. Nix had a great rookie season, but that does not guarantee him more success in his second year. Looking at other recent QBs with great rookie years, a sophomore slump might be reasonable to expect. C.J. Stroud was 2023’s Offensive Rookie of the Year and blew everyone away with his play as the Houston Texans’ fresh signal caller. However, his second year in the league this past season saw him decline in practically every statistical category, throwing for fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, and more interceptions. That’s not to say that Stroud became a bad QB or that his team fell apart; Stroud still had a solid year, especially for such a young player, and the Texans continued to not only get to, but win in the playoffs with him under center.
There’s also the case of Mac Jones, who placed second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting back in 2021. With a dynamite rookie season in New England under Bill Belichick, the immediate thought was that the Patriots had found their successor to Tom Brady and would continue their winning ways. However, as the next few seasons rolled on, Jones fell back to Earth, declining each year until the Pats shipped him off to Jacksonville to be a backup behind Trevor Lawrence. Going into 2025, Jones will see himself on the depth chart behind Brock Purdy, yet another young QB that exploded onto the NFL scene during his rookie year.
It isn’t reasonable to try to guarantee Nix’s second season in the league going one way or the other. Football is a game about the human factor, where anything can happen on any given Sunday. The 2025 season could see Nix elevate himself as one of the best QBs in all of the AFC, or even the NFL at large. It could also see him have a slightly worse year, or even flame out as a one-year wonder. The only certainty is that, based on his performance last year, Nix is a player that fans around the league would do well to keep their eyes on.
