Can the 32-Year-Old Controversial Bantamweight Finally Win the Fans Over with a Huge Upset?

Mario Bautista is on an eight-fight winning streak, and with some of the names he has beaten along the way, you would think he would have gotten his chance at fighting someone in the top five a long time ago. However, after his controversial decision victory over the legend Jose Aldo, he was thrown to the newcomer Patchy Mix as a way to build up Mix. To many people’s surprise, he absolutely outclassed Mix and was able to show that his skill set is something to be respected. Now he has a chance to overcome an even bigger obstacle in his fight this Saturday against the second-ranked Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov. Can Bautista finally secure his long-awaited title shot, or will Umar creep one step closer to getting a rematch with the dominant champion?

Mario Bautista doesn’t have a fighting style that will impress many fans. He is very sound defensively and doesn’t over-swing with his offense. He has good takedown defense, which will be put to the ultimate test in this matchup. He has good lateral movement and has good leg and body kicks that he will need to implement in this fight if he wants to slow down Umar and get him on the back foot. If he can back Umar up against the fence, he has an exceptional clinch game where he likes to throw elbows and knees, and has great strength at controlling them up against the fence. He can sometimes be aggressive with his takedown defense, throwing knees, which he would catch Umar if he can time it when he is about to shoot. Both fighters are switch-stance fighters, so it will be a chess match in the striking. If Mario can keep the pressure on Umar and keep him on the back foot, it will be his best path to victory. I think this fight is much closer than the odds say, and Bautista has the skill set to make it a difficult night for Umar. 

Umar Nurmagomedov looked to be just a matter of time before he was holding up gold at 135. At UFC 311, Umar ran into the ‘Machine’ in Merab Dvalishvili and has taken a substantial amount of time off healing his broken hand and making the proper adjustments. Umar has good striking and likes to mix up his weapons as well. He has a good high crouch takedown, and his entries are smooth and subtle. He has good top control and can transition to the back from seemingly anywhere. He needs to be the one moving forward because, like the fight against Merab, he fought well; both clearly fell behind having to counter rather than being the one moving forward. He has struggled to hold his opponents down after getting a takedown in his last two fights, so he will need to get that corrected because Mario has better cardio and volume, so on the feet, I would give the edge to Mario. I think Umar is going to be bigger and stronger and force the issue early and often, and will be relentless in getting this fight to the ground. I can see him getting a takedown in every round and potentially getting a late-round finish. 

This could be a number-one-contender-type fight, depending on which direction the UFC is trying to go. A win for Mario will almost certainly get him a title shot sometime early next year, while Umar may need one more win to really get Merab’s attention. Whichever way this fight goes, you're not going to want to miss it and all the other action this Saturday, October 25th, for UFC 321. The main card starts time of 2:00 p.m. EST.