Can the Orioles 2026 Opening Day Starter Get Back to His Old Self After a Shaky Start to the Season?

Entering 2026, the Baltimore Orioles were hopeful that their starting rotation would be a strength for the team after a disastrous 2025 season that saw Baltimore miss the postseason following back-to-back appearances, finishing with a 75-87 record and last place in the AL East. Following an offseason that saw general manager Mike Elias make several additions to the starting five, including the trade for and subsequent long-term extension of former Tampa Bay Rays Shane Baz, the signing of veteran free agent Chris Bassitt, and the re-signing of Zach Eflin, the Orioles were hopeful that those three additions would fit cohesively with holdovers Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers. Rogers was Baltimore's most consistent starter in 2025, earning Most Valuable Oriole honors and drawing some AL Cy Young Award and AL Comeback Player of the Year Award buzz as well. With Rogers being named the Orioles' 2026 Opening Day starter, the 28-year-old was expected to be the one to anchor the top of Baltimore's rotation. However, through the first two months of the season, Rogers has been anything but that and has raised legitimate concern about whether the left-hander can regain the form that made him so effective in 2025 and help get the Orioles back on track. Baltimore is looking to recover from yet another shaky start to the season, currently sitting at 28-32 but still only a game out of the final AL Wild Card spot.

Following a 2025 campaign that saw Rogers finish with a 9-3 record and a 1.81 ERA, which established a new Orioles record among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in a season, he also posted a remarkable 0.90 WHIP, with 103 strikeouts to just 29 walks across 18 starts. However, the New Mexico native has struggled to carry that same form into 2026 for a Baltimore rotation that desperately needs consistency from its top arms moving forward. Through 10 starts this season, Rogers has struggled mightily, posting a 2-6 record with a 6.84 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. His struggles have only added to an Orioles pitching staff that has failed as a whole to provide reliable outings, ranking 26th in MLB with a 4.63 ERA while issuing the seventh-most walks and recording the ninth-fewest strikeouts in the league. As a result, Baltimore's offense has been under pressure to produce high-scoring outputs every night, which is a lot to ask of one side of the team, and it has yet to come to fruition under first-year manager Craig Albernaz.

Rogers, who has experienced a rollercoaster MLB career to date, was once the Miami Marlins' top starter during his first five seasons in the league, highlighted by a breakout 2021 campaign that earned him his first all-star selection. After being traded to the Orioles midway through the 2024 season, Rogers initially struggled to live up to the trade package Baltimore surrendered, which included Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers heading to South Florida. However, in 2025, Rogers flipped the script and became one of the league's best pitchers over a four-month stretch. A large part of that success stemmed from his ability to get back to executing what he does best when he's at his peak: keeping hitters off-balance while attacking every quadrant of the strike zone and leaving opponents guessing where he would attack next. Unfortunately, through the first two months of this season, Rogers has caught too much of the strike zone, allowing hitters to square up his pitches with far greater consistency. That is a recipe for disaster, as the seven-year veteran is not known for overpowering hitters with elite velocity, carrying an average four-seam fastball velocity between 92.0 and 94.5 mph. As a result, Rogers typically relies on movement, pitch location, and an elite changeup to dominate hitters when he's at his best.

Going into his outing Friday night against the Toronto Blue Jays, Rogers appeared to be showing signs of returning to form, cruising through six scoreless innings against Toronto's lineup. However, Albernaz elected to leave his top-of-the-rotation starter in for the seventh inning, a decision that quickly backfired. The Blue Jays tagged Rogers for four runs in the frame, cutting into Baltimore's 5-0 lead before eventually rallying to defeat the Orioles 6-5 in the second game of a four-game series. Before the game, Albernaz emphasized the mental aspect of pitching in the Major Leagues, stating, "Baseball is such a mental game." Albernaz later added, "Mental warfare within yourself." 

While Rogers' latest outing ultimately ended on a sour note and contributed to one of Baltimore's more disappointing losses of the season, especially coming off a series sweep of the first-place Rays, the blueprint for a return to dominance was evident through those first six innings. That blueprint was on full display before the left-hander ran into trouble in the seventh inning. Avoid the middle of the plate, attack all areas of the strike zone, and keep hitters off-balance by forcing them to guess what's coming next. If the Orioles' frontline starter can replicate what he did prior to running out of gas Friday night, Baltimore's pitching staff should be positioned for much greater success heading into the summer months as the club looks to turn its season around and return to the postseason in October.