Can the Padres Star Third Baseman Continue Streak of Strong Offensive Numbers in 2026?
The San Diego Padres have historically struggled with consistency; the 2020s have been no exception. The Padres have alternated between egregiously disappointing seasons, such as 2021 and 2023, and inspiring playoff runs, such as 2022 and 2024. The team has had offseasons of mega-contracts and offseasons of penny-pinching. Amidst all of the chaos regarding the team's performance, one player has been a constant: Manny Machado.
Mr. Consistency
The seven-time all-star has earned himself team captain honors for his ridiculously consistent high level of play. There are few players in the MLB as automatic as Machado on a year-to-year basis. The San Diego and Machado marriage began seven years ago and marked a turning point for the Padres franchise. For the entire existence of the franchise, it seemed to serve as a feeder system for the rest of the league and failed to make major moves in free agency each year. However, in the 2019 offseason, the Padres threw a massive contract at the then four-time all-star third baseman. The agreement was a 10-year, $300 million contract, the largest free agent contract in the MLB at the time, an unthinkable figure for the bottom-feeding Padres.
Machado instantly made an impact for San Diego, anchoring their lineup and pairing perfectly with rookie sensation Fernando Tatis Jr. In his first season as a Padre, the then 26-year-old third baseman put up good numbers, hitting 32 home runs with a .796 OPS. The leap into the aforementioned team captain role came in 2020. Despite the shortened season, the Padres were electric. Spearedheaded by a top-three MVP placing season from Machado, the team made a playoff run for the first time in 14 years.
It only continued in 2021 as the two-time Gold Glove Award winner made his first All-Star Game as a Padre, putting up 5.0 WAR in the process. Thus far, 2022 has been Machado's peak for the Padres. The third baseman nearly single-handedly carried San Diego in the first half of the season, earning an all-star nod yet again. He narrowly missed out on his first career NL MVP Award at the conclusion of the year, finishing second behind Paul Goldschmidt. The MVP consideration came from him putting up an outstanding 6.8 WAR in 2022, smoking 32 home runs with an OPS .898.
Even a rare case of missing some time in 2023 couldn't prevent the Padres’ third baseman from performing at a high level. In 138 games, Machado hit the 30 home run threshold again, posting an OPS of .782 to go along with the round-trippers. Entering 2024, the former third overall pick enacted the opt-out clause in his original $300 million deal. The Padres, knowing what Manny meant to the city of San Diego, made the negotiations easy, extending their captain to a new 11-year, $350 million deal. Through the first two years of the new deal, Manny has been exactly as advertised, winning back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards in 2024 and 2025.
Looking Towards the Future
Despite Machado’s remarkable consistency, age spares no one. He will be 33 entering the 2026 season, yet it is easy to believe that the third baseman still has at least a few above-average offensive seasons in the tank. Riding a streak of seven straight seasons with an OPS of at least .780 in a Padres uniform, 2026 will be no different. In 2025, Machado had an OPS of .795, yet he hit a low of 27 home runs for his Padres career. Baseball Savant’s quality of contact metrics reveal a potential return to the 30 home run club for the seven-time all-star in 2026. He ranked in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity in 2025, an encouraging metric for his future. Even more exciting is the 81st percentile barrel rate and the 92nd percentile hard-hit rate. The former third overall pick hit the ball hard in 2025. In fact, he hit the ball harder than he did in 2022, his near-MVP season.
In 2022, the now 33-year-old posted a barrel rate within the 66th percentile along with an average exit velocity in the 89th percentile, both worse metrics than his 2025 season. Consistency is Machado’s key to both leading the Padres to playoff success and earning himself a spot in Cooperstown. Beyond 2026 is a bit more hazy, but it's easy to see the near future. As of now, the 33-year-old third baseman is aging like a fine wine; expect nothing but the best baseball from him in 2026.
