Can the San Diego Padres All-Star Outfielder Return to Superstar Status Offensively in 2026?

The San Diego Padres are coming into 2026 fresh off back-to-back 90-win campaigns, yet this year feels confusing. The team itself is for sale on the open market, still reeling from beloved owner Peter Seidler’s unfortunate passing. Their offseason spending reflected the financial situation as well, with bargain-bin depth pickups being a consistent theme. One of the many questions surrounding San Diego this season is regarding their $340 million right fielder, Fernando Tatis Jr., a player whose career can be broken into two halves.

The Butting Superstar

Fernando Tatis Jr’s career can be broken into two parts: pre-suspension and post-suspension. The first stretch spans from 2019 to 2021, and the numbers were absurd. Tatis made his MLB debut in 2019, at just 20 years old. Despite his young age, the shortstop instantly became a fixture of the basement-dwelling Padres lineup, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. He played in just 84 games, yet he slashed .317, .379, .590 with 22 home runs. The natural athleticism was jaw-dropping as well, helping him swipe 16 bases. The five-tool production resulted in 4.0 WAR in a fairly limited sample size. 

2020 brought eyes to the Padres for the first time since the late 2000s, thanks in large part to Tatis’ continued success. Despite a COVID-shortened season, Tatis tore it up, finishing fourth in MVP voting and taking home his first career Silver Slugger. He played with a certain energy that was spreading across the MLB with players like him, Ronald Acuña Jr., and others. Yet there was another level yet to be achieved. 

The pinnacle of Fernando Tatis Jr’s career to this point is his 2021 season. In 2021, Tatis made his first career all-star team, won his second career Silver Slugger, and finished a career-high third in MVP voting. He racked up 6.6 WAR thanks to his league-leading 42 home runs, a mark that puts him eighth for most single-season home runs by a shortstop. The success brought an obscene amount of attention to the young slugger. It seemed every day, the MLB Instagram page was posting about Tatis. However, at the peak of his popularity and production, the sky came falling down. 

Crash and Burn

In the 2022 offseason, Fernando Tatis Jr broke his wrist in a motorcycle accident in the Dominican Republic, putting himself out for multiple months of the 2022 season. The competing Padres eagerly awaited their superstar’s return in the early going of 2022. However, in August, bombshell news broke. Tatis had tested positive for PEDs and was handed an 80-game suspension, rendering him useless for the Padres 2022 playoff run. 

Despite the suspension and controversy surrounding it, Tatis returned to baseball in the early going of the 2023 season with a new challenge. The Padres elected to move their star to the outfield, placing him in right field to combat health concerns and poor shortstop defense. 2023 was productive, yet still a drop-off in offensive production from his previous seasons. Tatis put up a career-worst .770 OPS. Despite the drop, the clear highlight of this two-part career was firmly put on display. Tatis took home National League Platinum Glove honors in his first season playing in the outfield. He ranked in the 96th percentile of Baseball Savant’s fielding run value. In 2024, Fernando missed games, playing in 102 contests for the Padres, putting up an OPS of .833, which is great, yet still not the peak he once achieved. 

In 2025, Tatis entirely changed his hitting approach. The right fielder was the Padres’ everyday lead-off man, and consequently became a new version of himself. By sacrificing power, Fernando put up a career-high 90th percentile walk rate. The result was an incredible on-base season, coupled with good pop and stellar baserunning and defense. There is nothing wrong with Fernando Tatis Jr’s 2025 season, but you can’t help but figure there's more for him in the batter’s box.

Return to Form? 

In order to find the perfect version of Tatis in 2026, he must slightly abandon the conservative approach displayed in 2025. Platinum Glove defense and 25 home runs are lovely, but underlying metrics hint that a 30 home run, 30 stolen base, premium defender is still in there somewhere. In 2025, Tatis graded in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, while simultaneously grading out as the 93rd percentile in hard-hit percentage. Both of these numbers are highly encouraging; hard contact is a recipe for extra base hits, but the struggle is his passiveness. Focus on walking has extracted his power, yet in 2026, this pop is likely to return. The World Baseball Classic fully displayed Fernando’s potential in the leadoff spot; he can still be a table setter, yet can unlock his forgotten power. The Padres’ best chance at another playoff berth is on the back of their best player, when Fernando Tatis Jr is performing at the highest level, baseball is better. Just a slight departure from conservatism could result in another MVP-esque season.