CFP Earthquake Incoming: Big 12 Could Force a Two-Bid Shockwave
The landscape of the College Football Playoff is shifting beneath our feet, and the way the committee views conference strength is suddenly front and center in the discussion. Historically, the spotlight has shone brightest on the Southeastern Conference and the Big Ten Conference as the bastions of power football, but now the Big 12 Conference is making waves. Five teams are currently ranked in the AP Top 25, including the BYU Cougars leading the way. Meanwhile, the committee's updated metrics for strength of schedule – including the newly emphasized “record strength” metric – mean that the narrative of conference perception is getting a hard recalibration. What this means for CFP energy is that every intra-conference result and non-conference marquee matchup now carries even more weight. If the Big 12 can show it’s not just deep but battle-tested, it could force the committee’s hand toward multiple playoff bids from the league.
Yet beneath that potential lies a gnawing question: Is the Big 12 truly on par with the traditional heavyweights when you look at the track record? In the 2024-25 bowl season, the Big 12 went just 4-5, a .444 mark, while the Big Ten posted an 11-6 record, .647. That data suggests depth may not equal elite-level results. Moreover, the Big 12’s strength-of-schedule ranks show plenty of variation: for example, the Kansas State Wildcats’ schedule scored a 522.5 strength-of-schedule rating in 2025, while other league members were much lower; and while the Big 12 programs will log 14 games against other Power Four conferences this season, the committee will scrutinize how many of those games are truly competitive, not just scheduled. The energy around the Big 12 could pivot from hopeful to booming if a team like BYU or Texas Tech Red Raiders nails a marquee non-conference win, forcing a deeper conversation about two or even three Big 12 teams being playoff-worthy.
For my predicted upsets in the playoff picture: first, watch for BYU to upset a higher-seeded Big Ten or SEC team in the first round, maybe catching someone off-guard with the way they’ve paced through a ruthless conference slate 7-0 overall, 4-0 Big 12. Then I’m betting the Big 12 won’t just sneak one in; I believe it will land two teams in the playoff. If BYU and Texas Tech or the ever-consistent Cincinnati Bearcats can finish with one loss apiece — and both wins include Power Conference victories, the committee may be compelled to give the Big 12 the second bid. Finally, I’ll throw in a wild one: A Big 12 champion with two losses sneaks into the bracket because the wins are high-quality and the losses are against other ranked opponents, showing the committee they can handle toughness. All told, this committee’s focus on schedule strength and conference perception is going to inject dramatic energy into the last two months of the season, and if the Big 12 plays its cards right, it could alter the playoff map in ways we haven’t seen before.
