Does ‘Tarzan’ Have What it Takes to Dethrone ‘The Wolf’ At UFC 328
The MMA world is buzzing with excitement following the announcement of UFC Freedom 250 last weekend, but that’s not the only thing fans have to be excited about. A slew of new fights were announced this week, including Khamzat Chimaev's first defense of his title. His name is synonymous with dominance. In all of his fights so far, he’s scarcely looked human. In his last fight, the middleweight king made short work of the surging Dricus Du Plessis, accruing more than 20 minutes of control time on the ground. When tested and kept away from his incredible grappling game, he has the ability to bite down on his mouthpiece and throw, like when he fought Gilbert Burns or Kamaru Usman. Despite these slight exceptions, which were against a BJJ world champion and one of the greatest welterweights ever, the reality of Khamzat Chimaev's fights has been a simple one: if he gets his hands on you, you won’t get back up, and he will get his hands on you. He shoots with unbelievable speed, lower than his opponent's knees, and begins to dominate. His game plan is utterly simple and almost completely unstoppable.
Sean Strickland, by contrast, represents a different kind of fighter. He isn’t uniquely explosive or powerful, doesn’t have a credentialed wrestling background, and lacks a strong submission game. What Strickland does have is the ability to win fights. His at times bizarre modified Philly shell, at first glance appearing to be almost flailing, represents one of the best defenses in the UFC. Strickland often stands right in front of his opponents, and they rarely hit him clean. In his last bout, a fight night main event against Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, he battered his opponent for three rounds until he crumbled from a knee to the body. Strickland is only ever just out of range, and his educated jab, footwork, and defense make him a tough night out against any striker. And grapplers find him to be no easy out, either. Strickland has a 76% takedown defense rating and has demonstrated an impressive ability to get back to his feet once he hits the mat.
It won’t be enough to handle Khamzat Chimaev, though. Chimaev’s grappling is simply special. His only apparent weakness is his cardiovascular endurance, which is likely a result of his incredible explosiveness. The only way for a fighter to bring out this weakness is to make Chimaev work hard for a prolonged period of time on the ground, like Usman, or force him into a standup fight, where he is less comfortable, like Burns. Strickland has neither the wrestling of Usman nor the submission game of Burns. Du Plessis was able to take Strickland down numerous times across both of their fights, and he was absolutely helpless in the grappling against Chimaev. Strickland has the chops to hold him off, but not for long. Based on this, it’s likely that Chimaev will defend his belt in emphatic fashion. I predict a third-round submission for Khamzat Chimaev.
