Does the 2026 Red Sox Lineup Have a Power Problem?
The home run occupies a unique position in major sports. The achievement, the goal of every hitter who steps to the plate, is a kind of gift for the fans that they will not get anywhere else. Steph Curry doesn’t launch a three with the hope that it will land in the nosebleeds of Oracle Arena. Drake Maye doesn’t aim to scramble up the aisles of Gillette Stadium. A ball struck into the outfield bleachers, hopefully caught by a kid with a glove and a too-big hat, serves as a connection to the game, to athletes who might seem otherworldly. At the moment the fence is cleared, the people present, players and ticket holders alike, are one. It is a breaking of barriers, both literal and figurative, between participant and onlooker. It is often not the most crucial thing to happen during a game on the diamond, but all the same, there is nothing like it. As Spring Training heats up, eyes in New England and all over the world turn to the Red Sox lineup and their capacity for those magical moments. In other words, is the team going to hit enough dingers?
Jokey phrasing aside, allegations of a lack of power hitting have been circling the Sox for months. In the ups and downs of the Grapefruit League games of February, the concerns have lingered. The team finished below league average in home runs for 2025, managing just 186 total. Like many statistics coming out of Boston last season, it is not reprehensible, but it certainly is underwhelming. The nine-time World Series champions did little to address the lineup deficiency over the offseason. If anything, their moves were detrimental to long-ball potential, especially letting Alex Bregman walk and likely replacing him with Caleb Durbin or Marcelo Mayer.
This fire of doubt was stoked in late January when Fangraphs ZiPS projections forecasted that not a single Boston player would hit over 20 home runs. The threshold was actually only met by two hitters last season, so the 2026 update should not feel so alarming. All the same, the media was quick to jump on this, so the team felt obligated to weigh in. Manager Alex Cora is adamant that one player, if not more, will reach the plateau with ease.
Cora might end up being proven right. It is known wisdom that one should not place too much emphasis on the statistical performances of Spring Training. That being said, Jarren Duran hitting three homers in two days is a nice bit of temporary medicine for “ZiPS panic” related afflictions. The Red Sox will surely not match the strongest teams in the league when it comes to four-baggers. Perhaps, however, they can manage just enough power to find themselves in the playoffs again.
