Evaluating the Astros 2026 Starting Rotation Following Several Key Additions and Departures
It was an eventful offseason for the Houston Astros, specifically when it came to improving the starting pitching group. During the 2025 season, the back end of Houston’s rotation was not as consistent as they had hoped. The team only had two starters make more than 15 total starts last season. The lack of depth in the starting rotation was a big reason as to why the Astros couldn’t hold onto a playoff spot down the stretch. Through the first 90 games of last season, Houston had a 55-35 record and was firmly in the playoff picture. After having a losing record in each of the final three months of the season, they would ultimately finish with an 87-75 record. This was tied with the Tigers for the final AL wild card spot. Detroit would win the tiebreaker due to having a better record head-to-head. Last season was the first time that the Astros missed out on a playoff spot since 2016.
Hunter Brown Emerges as Rotation Ace While Valdez Departs
Houston did have some consistency within their starting rotation. They did have two starters that gave them 30+ starts and pitched effectively in Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Last season was Brown’s third year as a key member of the Astros' rotation. It was also by far his best season in the majors. In 31 starts, he pitched to a 2.43 ERA, which was the third-best in all of baseball amongst qualified starting pitchers. Brown earned his first all-star selection and finished third in American League Cy Young voting. Astros fans are certainly excited to have him back in 2026, leading their rotation. The other starter in that Houston rotation last season that made 30+ starts is Framber Valdez, who will not be back in 2026. He recently signed a massive three-year, $115 million contract with the Tigers. The left-hander's presence will certainly be missed, as he had been a staple of the Astros rotation for the last six seasons. The 32-year-old had also led the team in innings pitched in each of the last four seasons. He’s also coming off a career year in 2025, where he pitched to a 3.66 ERA and accumulated a 3.8 bWAR, which was the second-best of his career.
Astros Sign Japanese Star Tatsuya Imai
The loss of Valdez will definitely sting for Astros fans, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t lose all hope for the team having a solid rotation in 2026. Their most notable addition to the rotation this offseason was the signing of Japanese phenom Tatsuya Imai. After pitching in the NPB with the Seibu Lions for the last eight seasons, he decided to make the move over to the States. The Astros signed the right-hander to a three-year contract worth $54 million; it was the second-largest international signing of the 2025 MLB offseason. The 27-year-old has dominated the NPB in recent seasons. He finished the 2025 season with a 1.92 ERA, making a total of 24 starts totaling 163.2 innings. Imai is also a three-time NPB all-star. Additionally, he struck out a total of 17 batters in one game last season, which was a franchise record. He might not have the proven major league track record that Valdez has, but recent Japanese pitchers who have come over to the major leagues have seemed to adjust well. Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers, Shota Imanaga of the Cubs, and Yusei Kikuchi of the Angels are a few names that come to mind that have had success in both leagues.
Blockbuster Trade Brings Mike Burrows to Houston
The Astros also went the trade route to try to improve their rotation for 2026. They were a part of a blockbuster three-team deal along with the Pirates and the Rays this offseason. The Astros would receive starting pitcher Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh in that deal. Houston sent over a pretty valuable prospect package, trading right-handed pitching prospect Anderson Brito and outfield prospect Jacob Melton over to the Rays. Both of whom were top 10 prospects in Houston’s farm system. The Astros clearly see something in Burrows, as the consensus opinion on that deal after it was made was that Houston had given up a significant amount for a 26-year-old pitcher who had only made 19 career major league starts. Burrows did have a solid rookie campaign last year, though, with the Pirates. In 96 innings, he pitched to a 3.94 ERA with a K/9 of 9.1. The right-hander's off-speed stuff was what made him an effective big league arm last season. He featured an excellent changeup that had a 43.1% whiff rate and an opposing batting average of .147. If his changeup is as good a secondary pitch as it was last season and he’s able to improve his fastball, he could really take that next step. He has above-average velocity on his fastball, which averaged 95.5 mph, but opposing batters still crushed it. He had a minuscule whiff rate of just 12.7% on that pitch and an opposing batting average of .326. That pitch will simply have to be better for Burrows next season to turn into that front-end starting pitcher that the Astros front office clearly thinks he can become.
Health Will Be Key: Javier and McCullers Return from Injuries
The Astros will also be hoping to get some additional help in the rotation from pitchers who battled injuries during the 2025 season. 28-year-old Cristian Javier has gotten off to a very solid start to his major league career, but he was unfortunately limited to just eight starts last season. The right-hander has spent all six of his major league seasons in Houston, and he’s made a total of 90 career starts out of 124 total appearances. He’s been a very solid pitcher at the major league level with a career ERA of 3.66 and a K/9 of 10.0. The Dominican Republic native also inked a large contract extension after his career year in 2022. It was a five-year, $64 million contract that the two sides agreed to. Due to elbow issues, that extension hasn't really gone as planned, as he’s only made a combined 15 starts over the last two seasons. Javier looks to be healthy, heading into the 2026 season. He made his first start of spring on March 9th.
Lance McCullers Jr. is another name that fits in the same category of pitchers that the Astros are hoping can bounce back from injury in 2026. Very few, if any, pitchers at all have dealt with as bad an injury as the 32-year-old has had in recent seasons. The 13 starts he made last season were the most he’s made in a season since 2021. He missed almost the entire 2022 season due to a flexor strain, then missed all of 2023 due to an elbow injury, then all of 2024 due to the same flexor strain. He stepped on the mound for the first time in two years last season, but still missed around half of the season due to a hand injury and a foot injury. Surely Astros fans would do anything to see McCullers get back to his 2021 form when he made the All-Star team and pitched to a 3.16 ERA over 28 starts. After so many injuries, that seems unlikely, but McCullers, as of now, is healthy and has already made two starts this spring. He’ll likely be at the back end of the Astros rotation at the start of next season.
Projected 2026 Astros Starting Rotation
Houston’s current rotation looks as if it will feature both Hunter Brown and Tatsuya Imai at the front end of the rotation. It almost certainly will be Brown who gets the nod to start on Opening Day for them against the Angels. Following those two, it will likely be either Burrows or Javier as the team's third starter. There could be some competition for that final rotation spot. Lance McCullers Jr. is certainly a candidate. Houston also had several other arms that slotted into rotation later in the year due to the abundance of injuries. 33-year-old veteran Jason Alexander was a midseason acquisition on last year's team that gave them some solid starts down the stretch. Additionally, Left-hander Colton Gordon, who made his major league debut last season, was another arm that the Astros relied on more than they originally would have thought. He was tied for third on the team with 14 total starts. However, he wasn’t as effective, pitching to a 5.34 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP. The 27-year-old is still a solid depth option for Houston headed into 2026.
Final Outlook: Can the New Rotation Get Houston Back to the Postseason?
With all that being said, the Houston Astros made significant moves this offseason to strengthen their starting rotation after a 2025 season that exposed their lack of depth. The loss of Framber Valdez will take some getting used to, but the additions of Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, along with the possibility of fully healthy seasons from Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers, could be more than enough to make up for it. The Astros' rotation also features a clear ace to lead that pitching staff with Hunter Brown, who should yet again be a contender for the American League Cy Young award. The rotation still has some clear question marks, but the front office certainly showed this offseason that they were serious about building a solid starting rotation to help get them back in the postseason.
