Former First Overall Pick’s Complicated Road to Canton

When Matthew Stafford takes the field for the Los Angeles Rams in 2025, it will mark his 17th NFL season — a remarkable testament to longevity, toughness, and consistency. Though he’s under contract through 2026, there’s no guarantee that he will play beyond this upcoming year. With retirement potentially on the horizon, the conversation around Stafford's legacy and his place in football history is becoming louder and more complex. The biggest question: Is Matthew Stafford a Hall of Famer, and more specifically, is he a first-ballot Hall of Famer?

Rams safety Quentin Lake recently went to bat for his quarterback, appearing on Good Morning Football and saying: “No doubt in my mind that he’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The truest measure of performance is consistency.” Lake cited Stafford’s career passing yards, currently 10th all-time with 59,809, and his status among legends like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. If Stafford throws for around 7,400 more yards over the next two seasons, he would likely finish fifth all-time in passing yards. The same could be said for touchdowns, where just 50 more could vault him past Philip Rivers into sixth place.

While volume stats can sometimes be a product of longevity, Stafford’s postseason résumé adds critical weight. Since joining the Rams, he’s rewritten the narrative of his career. He is a Super Bowl Champion and has won five playoff games with the Rams. He also owns 49 career game-winning drives, second only to Peyton Manning among Hall of Famers, and a record of 19 wins and three losses in December, January, and February games since 2021, the months that matter most.

Despite those numbers, Stafford’s Hall of Fame candidacy isn’t airtight. Before joining the Rams, he had zero All-Pro selections, two Pro Bowl appearances, and no playoff wins in Detroit. While it’s easy to attribute Detroit’s shortcomings to the franchise rather than the quarterback, Hall of Fame debates often weigh individual accolades and team success heavily. Compare him to contemporaries: Eli Manning: two Super Bowl wins, Super Bowl MVP, likely Hall of Famer, Philip Rivers: eight-time Pro Bowler, no Super Bowl, fringe candidate. Stafford has never led the league in passer rating, touchdowns, or completion percentage — benchmarks that many Hall of Fame QBs have hit at least once. His Hall of Fame Monitor score sits at 84.23, below the average for QBs in Canton, and just behind Eli Manning.

Another deep playoff run, especially a second Super Bowl appearance, would likely put Stafford over the top. A second ring would make him the only quarterback not in the Hall of Fame with multiple Super Bowls and more than 60,000 passing yards. Even just reaching the big game again would help quiet some of the “he didn’t do enough” crowd. There’s little doubt Matthew Stafford will ultimately end up in the Hall of Fame. His numbers, clutch postseason play, and redemption arc with the Rams are too compelling to ignore. The question of first-ballot status is where the debate lies. Unless Stafford leads the Rams to another championship or an MVP-caliber season, he’ll likely face the same multi-year wait that other quarterbacks of his era have endured.