Hidden in Plain Sight: How an HBCU Win Exposed the Gaps in Women’s Basketball Analytics

Howard University’s 66–64 road win over Cincinnati wasn’t just a final score; it was a statement, a disruption, and a reminder that women’s college basketball is far more encrusted than preseason models suggest. On paper, this was a Big 12 team defending its home floor against an HBCU program that rarely shows up in national analytics conversations. On the court, it was balance, execution, and belief from a Howard squad that refused to play the role assigned to them. The Bison controlled tempo late, made timely defensive stops, and performed in crunch time like a program that expected to win, not one hoping for a miracle. That’s what made the upset resonate: it didn’t feel fluky, rushed, or chaotic. It felt earned, and that’s what makes it dangerous for the rest of the season.

This game exposed a long-standing issue in college basketball analytics: HBCUs and mid-majors are chronically under-modeled. Most predictive systems rely heavily on historical data density, non-conference strength of schedule, media visibility, and previous tournament exposure; all areas where HBCUs are structurally disadvantaged. Many models undervalue roster continuity, player development curves, and coaching stability, which are often strengths at programs like Howard. Add limited tracking data, fewer nationally televised games, and a lack of name-brand bias, and you get algorithms that simply don’t know how to price these teams accurately. When an HBCU beats a Power Five program, the narrative becomes shock value rather than a miscalculation. Howard’s win over Cincinnati wasn’t an anomaly; it was a correction. As more mid-major and HBCU programs invest in development over churn, these blind spots will keep becoming exposed.

For Howard, the impact of this win cuts both ways, but that’s the price of national attention. Positively, it elevates the program’s credibility overnight, strengthens recruiting pitches, boosts confidence in the locker room, and forces future opponents to prepare with real urgency. It also opens doors: more visibility, more respect in non-conference scheduling, and a louder voice in conversations about parties in women’s basketball. The downside is real. Every opponent from here on out circles Howard on the calendar, and sustaining emotional and physical intensity becomes harder when you’re no longer underestimated. There’s also the pressure of expectation; winning once is freedom, winning again is responsibility. Still, if Howard embraces that shift instead of resisting it, this victory won’t just be remembered as an upset; it’ll be remembered as the moment the rest of the country finally caught up to what this program already knew.