How a 2026 Offseason Trade Between the Cubs and the Marlins Have Worked Out for Both Clubs
The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins swung one of the biggest trades of the offseason, and the two players who headlined the deal are both off to hot starts to the 2026 season. On January 7th, the two clubs made a trade where the Marlins sent right-handed starter Edward Cabrera to the Cubs in exchange for young outfielder Owen Caissie, who was Chicago’s top prospect at the time of the trade. Miami also received two lower-level prospects in shortstop Cristian Hernandez and utility infielder Edgardo De Leon to sweeten the deal. Neither had played past the High-A level in the minors. The two main pieces in the trade have both been extremely valuable to their teams to begin the season.
How Good was Cabrera in 2025?
The Marlins had been rumored to have been shopping their prized starting pitcher, Edward Cabrera, since before last season's trade deadline. They opted to keep him for the remainder of the 2025 season but finally made the decision to trade him to Chicago this winter. The 27-year-old put together the best season of his young career in 2025 with Miami. Across 26 starts, Cabrera posted a 3.53 ERA, the best among the Marlins rotation, while maintaining a strong 9.6 K/9 rate. That production came despite both fastballs, the four-seamer and sinker, producing poor results. Batters consistently made strong contact against those pitches, resulting in a fastball run value of minus-12, which ranked in the fifth percentile among major league pitchers. Velocity has not been the issue, as both fastballs averaged 96.9 miles per hour, placing in the 87th percentile. Inconsistent command allowed hitters to capitalize on location mistakes. That flaw highlights significant untapped potential, especially since the off-speed and breaking pitches generated excellent results. Cabrera recorded a plus-ten run value on breaking pitches and a plus-five mark with off-speed offerings.
Cabrera’s Outstanding Cubs Debut
Cabrera has only made one start so far in a Cubs uniform this season, yet the outing suggested a more complete version of the right-hander. All four of the 27-year-old’s pitches produced positive results against the Angels’ lineup on Monday. The slider and curveball remained dominant, combining for 29 pitches, allowing only one hit while generating 16 whiffs. The changeup was actually his most effective pitch; it was also the pitch he featured the most, throwing it 26 times. The Angels' lineup did not record a hit when facing it, while also swinging and missing on it 38.5 percent of the time. The thing that Cubs fans should be most excited about, though, is that Cabrera seemed to have had his fastball in his first start of the year. Cabrera threw his four-seamer 22 times, and Los Angeles’s lineup was not able to get a hit off it. Again, it is just a one-game sample size, but Angels hitters had just a .072 expected batting average when facing his four-seamer.
Caissie on a Tear to Start in 2026
Looking at the other side of the deal, the Marlins are very pleased with Caissie’s early production. The 23-year-old also comes with several more seasons of team control than Cabrera. At the time of the trade, Caissie was Chicago’s top prospect. A brief debut late last season included 12 games, preserving rookie status entering 2026. The former second-round selection was a force to be reckoned with at the Triple-A level for the Iowa Cubs last year, as Caissie dominated Triple-A pitching. In 99 games, he hit .286 and posted an OPS of .937, while mashing 22 homers. The Canadian native has carried that success over to the big league level now, as he’s off to an extremely hot start in his first season in a Marlins uniform. Miami is actually off to one of the best starts in the National League this season after they swept the Rockies in their opening series and followed that by winning two of three against the White Sox. Caissie has been a big reason why the Marlins are off to a five-and-one start this season. He’s been a force in the middle of Miami’s lineup, hitting .350, with a .991 OPS. His eight runs batted in are also the second most in Major League Baseball so far this season. The rookie has done this by doing an outstanding job of not chasing out of the strike zone, along with being able to find the barrel of the bat. Caissie has a great eye at the plate, chasing 21.8% of the time, a very good mark that puts him in the 84th percentile amongst major league hitters. The 23-year-old outfielder has also been able to find the barrel at a 20% clip, which puts him in the 88th percentile.
These early-season results have been exactly what both teams were hoping for when they agreed to the deal. The Cubs took a chance on Cabrera’s upside, hoping he could improve on his four-seam fastball and turn into a top-of-the-line major league starter. His first outing shows that Chicago's hopes could become a reality. On the other side of the deal, the Marlins got a young, controllable outfielder who had already flashed impressive power in the minors and is now beginning to translate that production to the major league level. If both players are able to continue performing on a similar level, this could be one of the biggest win-win trades in recent history.
