How a 2026 Padres 27-Year-Old Breakout Pitcher Crashed Back Down to Earth
As of June 20th, the San Diego Padres have slid back to third place in the National League West, a division they once led over the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers. The Friars are barely clinging to their above .500 record, sitting at 38-36, primarily carried by their early-season success. Recent struggles have been almost entirely due to the team's anemic offense. The Padres rank last in nearly every major team offensive stat. Most notably, their abysmal .656 team OPS is dead last in the MLB; the closest team to them is the New York Mets with a mark of .671. Despite downright terrible offense, the pitching staff has been solid, headlined by an incredible “super bullpen.” Blame cannot be entirely removed from the pitching staff; however, the Padres' rotation is shaky, and one starter represents the sudden crash-and-burn of this 2026 Padres team.
Early Exploits
Randy Vásquez joined the Padres as part of the blockbuster Juan Soto trade. The 27-year-old threw just 37.2 innings for the Yankees in 2023, pitching to a 2.87 ERA. His time in San Diego has not been nearly as smooth. 2024 saw the right-hander throw 98 innings for a playoff-bound Padres squad. His innings weren't great as he posted an ERA+ of 84. Vásquez bounced back to an extent in 2025, throwing more innings and posting better numbers with a 3.84 ERA in 133.2 innings, but underlying metrics revealed a discrepancy in performance versus expected output. Despite a solid ERA, his FIP was a full run higher, at 4.85. Despite the discrepancy, the 27-year-old came out of the gates hot in 2026. In his first three starts, he allowed just two runs in 17.2 innings of work. The former Yankee kept it rolling, sporting an ERA of 2.94 entering May. The breakout arm was reliable, throwing at least five innings in all but one of his starts entering May. Even a slight wake-up call in May couldn't truly break Vásquez’ numbers as he entered June with an ERA of 3.28, far better than the previous two seasons in San Diego. However, now, it is becoming increasingly clear that the foundation upon which the Padres starter has built his success is in danger.
Underlying Collapse
Through June, Vásquez has an ERA of 7.27, with 14 earned runs in 17.1 innings. Those numbers are spiked courtesy of his most recent start, a brutal blow-up where he gave up six runs in 3.1 innings after being given a five-run lead in the first inning. His overall ERA now sits at 4.17, with his FIP coming in at 4.50. Baseball Savant’s unkind percentile rankings reveal the issues with the 27-year-old’s approach. In terms of expected ERA, the Dominican-born pitcher is in the third percentile. Expected opponent batting average places him in the same third percentile. The issue arises from the former Yankee’s inability to generate strikeouts while simultaneously failing to limit hard contact. Vásquez has just 59 strikeouts in his 77.2 innings this year. Last season, he earned just 78 strikeouts in 133.2 innings. With a whiff percentage in the 23rd percentile its easy to see why the struggles with strikeouts exist. Not every pitcher has to be a strikeout artist, but in exchange, they must limit barrels. The Padres' third starter has a barrel rate allowed in the fourth percentile, along with an opponent hard hit percentage in the ninth percentile and an average exit velocity allowed in the fifth percentile, a scary sight for future production. He even struggles to entice ground balls, with his ground ball percentage ranking in the 18th percentile. The underlying metrics make it scary to see the 27-year-old returning to the pace he was on to start the season.
