How Many Games Can the 2026 Miami Dolphins Actually Win?
The Miami Dolphins are set to kick off the 2026 season in a week, heading to Las Vegas to take on the Kirk Cousins-led Raiders. Much of the talk about Miami heading into the season has been negative, stemming from a severe lack of talent. That became clear when no Dolphins let go of during roster cutdowns last week were claimed by the other 31 teams in the NFL. However, these are all professionals, so no matter what the expectations for the Miami Dolphins are, there’s still a fighting chance in every game for the 2026 Dolphins. I’m taking a look at how much of a puncher’s chance the Jeff Hafley-led Dolphins have for the 2026 season.
Grab the Permanent Marker for These Teams
As often as upsets happen in the NFL, and there’s always the chance that Miami can pull off the impossible, over half of the Dolphins’ schedule I’d feel confident in breaking out the Sharpie and putting a loss next to. Teams like the Patriots twice, Bills twice, Bears, Packers, Broncos, and Chargers are all teams that, if the Dolphins were to beat them somehow, I would be completely shocked by. The talent difference on both sides of the ball versus all of these teams is extremely one-sided, to the point where it would take a perfect game from Miami and a complete disaster for any of the teams listed for the Dolphins to have a shot. As I said, it’s not totally impossible, but it’s kind of statistically impossible for the Dolphins to win any of these games.
So, You’re Saying There’s a Chance?
The next tier of teams on the Dolphins' 2026 schedule, Miami has a decent opportunity to beat. Now, they won’t be favored in any of these games, and the smart money will look the other direction when wagering on any Dolphins game. Still, I do think the talent difference is small enough that it won’t be completely ridiculous to say the Dolphins could win. These teams include the Bengals, Vikings, 49ers, Chiefs, Colts, and Lions. It won’t take a perfect game from the Dolphins and a disaster game from any of those teams for Miami to have an average chance to win. It’ll take a really great game alongside a mistake-filled game for the Dolphins to come away with a win over any of these teams. Once again, the talent difference on both sides of the ball is fairly large, though not quite as large a gap as the previous teams mentioned. Every team on this list has a weakness the Dolphins can exploit, and if Miami executes its game plan, each matchup is winnable. The Bengals, Vikings, Colts, and Chiefs all have significant questions that Miami could exploit, like a lacking defense for the Bengals now without Trey Hendrickson and an offense filled with question marks for the Vikings. With both Indianapolis and Kansas City putting their offenses in the hands of quarterbacks coming off significant injuries, neither matchup should feel out of reach for Miami.
These Are Your Best Bets
Three games in particular could make the talent difference between the Dolphins and their opponent an interesting conversation: both games against the Jets and their Week One battle against the Raiders. Miami has controlled this rivalry in recent years, winning 15 of its last 22 meetings with New York, including nine victories since 2019. Alongside the Jets, the Raiders are rolling with an old face at quarterback in Cousins instead of the first overall pick Fernando Mendoza. I do like the matchup against both defenses for Miami’s offense, especially since the Dolphins have an element of surprise coming in Week One. The Dolphins only played their entire starting offense for one drive this preseason, and they look dominant on the ground and through the air. The Dolphins have some serious beef up front, and this offensive line looks built to come out hungry, establish the tone, and start moving bodies. That being said, I think all three games are going to be dogfights across the board, and potentially high-scoring ones since the Dolphins defense has the potential to be one of the worst in NFL History this season.
Overall Record Prediction: 3-14
Just because I had a lot of positives to say over the last two tiers doesn’t mean this team has a shot at playing past Week 18. It’s going to be a long shot for the Dolphins to avoid a top three pick, much less the extra 7 to 9 wins that they’d need to nab a playoff spot. Normally, a team with a lot of new talent has a chance to steal wins down the stretch as the team grows together against other teams. For Miami, their final five games of the season are against all six teams I listed as automatic losses for the Dolphins this season. Overcoming the gap in talent and experience would require a near-perfect performance from Miami. The Dolphins may have a path to an upset, but we’re talking about their chances climbing from virtually impossible to merely improbable. I expect Miami to finish the season 3-14, with wins against the Jets at home, the Raiders on the road, and the Chiefs at home. I like the Chiefs game because of the early-season heat that Kansas City will have to deal with in South Beach. The same thing happened to the Bills in week three of the 2022 season, when Miami finally caught their great white whale, largely due to the heat.
