How the 2026 Cup Series Points Leader Can Regain His Dominant Form at the Iowa Corn 350
In June, Denny Hamlin was the one driver that nobody could beat. He won three races in a row and ran inside the top-five for most of the Coca-Cola 600, but rain ended the race early with Daniel Suarez being declared the winner. Hamlin has not won another race since Pocono, and has been outran by younger Toyota drivers and the Team Penske Fords. Has the Cup Series field finally figured out how to tame the 11 car, or is Hamlin simply in a little bit of a break going into this weekend's race at Iowa?
Hamlin’s strategy might have finally been exposed to other drivers in the Cup Series field. During his June stretch of three straight wins, the three-time Daytona 500 Champion would often linger in the top five or top 10 for the first two stages. Then, Hamlin would gain the lead in stage three and go on to win the race. For example, at Michigan, Chase Elliott was the top driver of the race, leading 67 laps until he got caught up in a violent crash with Christopher Bell. At Nashville, Kyle Larson was the car to beat for the early portion of the race, but Hamlin and Tyler Reddick took over in stage three. There is a chance that drivers may have learned to stop the Virginia native by making adjustments in the stage two caution pit stop.
Hamlin may not be dropping because he is lacking, however. The 11 machine has already clinched a spot in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase and continues to lead the points going into Iowa. Additionally, the 20 car of Bell and Corey Heim have been running extremely well in Hamlin’s stead. With this being a dominant 2026 season for Toyota, the 20 and 67 cars might be getting an opportunity while Hamlin settles down for the 2026 Chase.
Hamlin has an opportunity to regain his dominant form starting at Iowa and next week’s race at Richmond. The four-time winner in 2026 has a good history at wide oval short tracks, and even though he has only run two races at Iowa, he has five wins at Richmond. He is the favorite to win at Iowa with +470 odds according to Fanduel. The biggest threats to Hamlin are Bell, Reddick, and Ryan Blaney, the Penske driver being the biggest threat. Blaney won the innagural Cup Series race at Iowa in 2024, and has been on a hot streak since winning at Atlanta on July 12th. If Hamlin can keep an eye on Blaney in the 12 car, he may start out a second dominant run before the Chase.
