How the Reds Own One of Baseball’s Best 2026 Records Despite Pitching Injuries and Poor Offense
The Cincinnati Reds are off to one of the most fascinating starts in the league, roughly a month into the 2026 Major League Baseball season. Cincinnati currently sits at 16-9, tied for the fourth-best record in the Majors. They have been able to do this despite dealing with significant setbacks in their starting rotation and ranking near the bottom of the league in runs scored per game. On the surface, the Reds don’t look like a team that would have one of the top records in baseball, but they have defied those odds so far this season. Cincinnati has been able to put together this impressive record due to timely hitting, good fielding, and an unexpectedly dominant bullpen.
Going into this season, expectations were not relatively high in Cincinnati. During the 2025 season, they barely snuck into the postseason via a tiebreaker that gave them the final NL Wild Card spot over the Mets. They were eventually swept by the Dodgers, but it was their first playoff appearance since the 2020 season. One reason why the Reds were able to get back into the postseason picture last season was due to career-best seasons from starting pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Greene finished the season with a 2.76 ERA and an 11.0 K/9 in his age-26 season. Lodolo also had a fantastic season, pitching to a 3.33 ERA with a nine K/9.
Both talented young starters were expected to lead Cincinnati’s rotation again in 2026, and both have yet to pitch this season. Greene’s injury is the more serious one of the two, as he had elbow surgery this offseason to remove chronic bone spurs. The Reds are expected to be without him for at least the first half of the season. Lodolo, on the other hand, is expected to be back with the team soon. He will begin a rehab assignment on April 26th. The lefty has been dealing with an injury on his index finger. Luckily for Cincinnati, they’ve had two young right-handers enjoying breakout seasons so far that have unexpectedly led the way in their starting rotation. 23-year-old Chase Burns has had an excellent sophomore season so far. In five starts, the second overall pick in the 2024 draft has a 2.57 ERA. He’s also striking out over a batter per inning and has a 1.07 WHIP. 24-year-old right-hander Rhett Lowder is another recent top draft pick who's paid off so far for Cincinnati this season. Through his first five starts, he’s got a 3.10 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP.
The bullpen, though, is the primary reason why the Reds' pitching staff ranks seventh in all of baseball in team earned run average, with a 3.58 team ERA on the season. 29-year-old right-hander Tony Santillan and 29-year-old Brock Burke have both been phenomenal in the back end of Cincinnati’s bullpen. The two veterans have combined for 22 innings on the season while only giving up one earned run. Additionally, 28-year-old right-hander Graham Ashcraft has a 1.50 ERA through 12 innings, and Emilio Pagan, the team’s closer, is tied for fourth in all of baseball with six saves.
The Reds’ offense has been the primary concern so far, raising questions about whether the team’s winning ways are sustainable. Their lineup is currently only averaging 3.88 runs per game, which ranks 25th in the Majors. It’s a lineup that has relied significantly on two young bats so far this season. That being 22-year-old infielder Sal Stewart and 24-year-old shortstop Elly De La Cruz. They are the only two position players on the team that have a positive bWAR so far this season. Stewart is likely the current favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, as he’s hitting .297 and already has eight homers on the season, good enough for an OPS of 1.004. As for De La Cruz, he’s having the best season of his career at the plate, batting .265 with an .879 OPS along with eight homers. The combined 16 home runs between the two of them make up for 16 of the team's 27 home runs.
Another reason why the Reds are seven games above .500 despite really only having two impactful hitters up to this point is because of how good they have been defensively. As a unit, the team ranks tied for seventh in the Majors in outs above average with a plus-five mark as a team. 26-year-old second baseman Matt McLain has been the team's best defender so far this season with plus three outs above average. A combination of good team defense and an elite bullpen has allowed the Reds to be able to win so many close games this season. The team actually has a negative two-run differential despite being seven games over .500. Luckily for Cincinnati, they have been baseball’s best team in close games. The Reds have a 5-0 record in games decided by one run.
So far this season, the Cincinnati Reds have shown they may not have the most talented roster in the league. The fact that they own a 16–9 record despite having just two position players with a positive bWAR is certainly notable. However, they’ve succeeded by doing exactly what less-talented teams must to win at this level: maximizing their opportunities. Through strong situational hitting, an excellent bullpen, and limiting mistakes defensively, the Reds have consistently found ways to come out on top in close games.
