How Will the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery Unfold? A Simulation Breakdown
The 2025 NHL Draft Lottery has been reported to officially take place on May 5th. The Blackhawks own the second-best odds of winning the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery by virtue of having the second-worst record in the league. This is identical to 2024. The San Jose Sharks own the best odds of winning the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery by virtue of having the worst record in the league. This is identical to 2024. San Jose won the 2024 lottery and drafted a rookie star who has been making an immediate impact. This is the first instance of such repetition since 2010. Other teams in both the 2024 and 2025 lottery also include the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Utah Hockey Club, Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Detroit Red Wings. Many of these teams have also been in the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery.
Since the 2012–13 NHL season, all teams not qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs have a weighted chance at winning the first overall selection. Beginning with the 2014–15 NHL season, the NHL changed the weighting system that was used in previous years. Under the new system, the odds of winning the draft lottery for the four lowest finishing teams in the league decreased, while the odds for the other non-playoff teams increased. The league reduced the number of lottery drawings before the 2021–22 season, resulting in two lotteries being held instead of three. Since the 2022 Draft Lottery, the teams winning one of the two drawings are allowed to move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order, and a team is only allowed to win the lottery twice in five years. Now that the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery has been officially revealed, it is only right to simulate the lottery to find out what teams get each pick. I have run simulations of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery 10 times and have recorded the results of all 10 simulations below.
Picks 13 Through 16
In eight of the 10 simulations I ran of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, picks 13-16 had the same result. In these, Calgary gets the 16th pick, the Vancouver Canucks get the 15th pick, Utah gets the 14th pick, and Columbus gets the 13th pick. Calgary does not own their draft pick, instead, the Montreal Canadiens own it. Therefore, Montreal will hold the 16th pick in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery in every simulation. In both of the other two simulations, Detroit gets the 13th pick in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery. In one of the other two simulations, Utah gets the 15th pick and Columbus gets the 14th pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. This is because Vancouver received a far earlier pick than statistically projected. This will be a common theme in the simulations, but it doesn’t traditionally happen.
Examining the last four NHL Draft Lottery results, those results are far more linear and don’t have teams like Vancouver receiving far earlier picks than statistically projected. The last time such an instance happened was in 2020, with the New York Rangers being given the first overall pick despite a 2.5% chance of doing so. It was a slightly different system in 2020 than the one currently being used. In 2022, the New Jersey Devils got the second pick in the NHL Draft despite an 8.6% likelihood. In 2024, the Anaheim Ducks got the third pick in that NHL Draft with a 7.8% likelihood despite being the third-worst team. These are the biggest surprises the current system has ever given us. That being said, anything is possible, and the simulations seem to believe we will receive historic chaos under the current NHL Draft Lottery system.
Picks Nine Through 12
In six of the 10 simulations I ran of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, picks 9-12 had the same result. In these, Detroit gets the 12th pick, the Rangers get the 11th pick, the New York Islanders get the 10th pick, and Pittsburgh gets the ninth pick. In the other four simulations, Anaheim gets the ninth pick with all else staying the same. In three of the remaining four simulations, the Islanders get the 11th pick, with Pittsburgh getting the 10th pick, and Anaheim receiving the ninth pick in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery.
Picks Five Through Eight
The simulations of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery begin to get chaotic, so the results will be analyzed by each individual draft pick, starting with the eighth draft pick. Buffalo gets the eighth pick of the 2025 NHL Draft in six of the 10 simulations. Anaheim gets the eighth pick in three of the simulations. Seattle gets the eighth pick in one of the simulations. Seattle gets the seventh pick in seven of the 10 simulations. Buffalo gets the seventh pick in two of the simulations. The Boston Bruins get the seventh pick in one of the simulations. Boston gets the sixth pick in six of the 10 simulations. Philadelphia gets the sixth pick in three of the simulations. Seattle gets the sixth pick in one of the simulations. Philadelphia gets the fifth pick in five of the 10 simulations. Nashville gets the fifth pick in four of the simulations. Vancouver, oddly enough, got the fifth pick in one of the simulations.
Under the 2025 system, Vancouver can only have the fifth pick, the 15th pick, or the 16th pick. Rounding up, they have a 1.1% chance of getting the fifth pick, a 1.1% chance of getting the 16th pick, and a 97.9% chance of getting the 15th pick. As such, such a jump is highly unlikely, albeit possible. Similar instances to this, with slightly different odds, include Calgary getting the sixth pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, Utah getting the fourth pick, Columbus getting the third pick, and Detroit getting the second pick.
Picks One Through Four
The simulations of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery continue to be chaotic, especially with the top two picks. Chicago gets the fourth pick in the 2025 NHL Draft in five of the 10 simulations. The Nashville Predators get the fourth pick in four of the simulations. Philadelphia gets the fourth pick in one of the simulations. San Jose gets the third pick in the 2025 NHL Draft in five of the 10 simulations. Chicago gets the third pick in three of the simulations. Columbus and Nashville get the third pick in one simulation each. Columbus has a 4.3% chance of getting the third pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, in a similar jump Vancouver achieved in a different simulation to get the fifth pick.
The top two draft picks, due to the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, are very randomized. 12 teams have at least three percent odds of getting any of the top two picks in the draft. The worse teams, of course, have higher odds, but nothing is out of the question. San Jose gets the second pick in the 2025 NHL Draft in three of the 10 simulations. Anaheim and Chicago each get the second pick in two of the 10 simulations. Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Nashville each get the second pick in one of the simulations. Boston, weirdly enough, gets the top draft pick in the 2025 NHL Draft in three of the 10 simulations. Boston only has an 8.5% likelihood of getting the top draft pick. This is the fifth-highest odds of any team this season. They also secured the sixth pick the most often in the simulations. San Jose gets the top pick in two of the simulations. Anaheim, Buffalo, Seattle, the Rangers, and Philadelphia all get the top pick in one simulation each.
The rule that a team is only allowed to win the lottery twice in five years affects both San Jose and Chicago. If Chicago wins this lottery, they are forbidden from doing so until 2028. This is because they won the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery. If San Jose wins this lottery, they are forbidden from doing so until 2029. This is because they won the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery. The Montreal Canadiens won the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery. If Montreal won the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, it would be forbidden from doing so until 2027. Fortunately for them, Montreal is in the playoffs and is therefore not in the lottery even though they own the rights to Calgary’s draft pick.
Projections
Putting together the results of all 10 simulations of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, the most common results are as follows. Calgary gets the 16th pick of the 2025 NHL Draft, the Vancouver Canucks get the 15th pick, Utah gets the 14th pick, and Columbus gets the 13th pick. Detroit gets the 12th pick of the 2025 NHL Draft, the Rangers get the 11th pick, the New York Islanders get the 10th pick, and Pittsburgh gets the ninth pick. Buffalo gets the eighth pick of the 2025 NHL Draft, Seattle gets the seventh pick, Boston gets the sixth pick, Philadelphia gets the fifth pick, and Nashville gets the fourth pick. Chicago gets the third pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, Anaheim gets the second pick, and San Jose gets the top draft pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. San Jose will then be forbidden from winning another draft lottery until 2029.
This is a big jump for Anaheim, who have a 6.2% chance of securing the second pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. There are no other statistical anomalies within these projections. Ultimately, the simulations I have run suggest we are due for a large jump in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery. Whether this is Boston getting the first pick, Anaheim getting the second pick, Columbus getting the third pick, or Vancouver getting the fifth pick, the simulations predict a shock when it comes time to draw the lottery. Any of those happening would be viewed as the biggest lottery surprise in years, and the biggest surprise ever under the current system.
