How Will the 2026 Padres Back-End Rotation Fair Down the Stretch?
The 2026 Padres season is at a massive crossroads. The deadline is approaching in just two days, and thus far no moves have been made to show their hand. Some believe the team will attempt to pawn off some of their stars to build for the future. That may be needed. The Padres have the worst-ranked farm system in baseball with some really scary contracts at the big-league level. On the other hand, some think the Padres' recent stretch of success, led by bounce-backs such as their 23-year-old center fielder, is reason to go all in, shedding the last of the weak farm system to make a run before the likely 2027 lockout. Whether you're on the sell side or the buy side, one thing is certain: the back-end of the rotation is going to need work.
Rough First Half
As a whole, the Padres team ERA is 4.13, good for 14th in the MLB. That mark is decent, nothing to scoff at, yet it does not tell the full story. Despite ranking 14th overall, the Padres sport the second-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball. A dreadful starting rotation is holding down the elite bullpen. Recent free agent signing Walker Buehler has been sent out as the Padres' number two starter after an injury to Nick Pivetta. Pivetta threw 16 innings before suffering his injury, yet he still has the same WAR total as Buehler, who has thrown 100 innings. Randy Vasquez is another back-end starter who has had a brutal year. The former Yankee started hot, but came crashing back down to earth rapidly; now he sports a 4.45 ERA and has been used with an opener as opposed to being a true starter. Another 2026 free agent signing, Griffin Canning, has struggled majorly in his time as a Padre, posting an ERA of 6.65 in 65 innings.
Improvement?
The Padres' struggling rotation is by far their biggest weakness down the stretch, but it appears this may be the new normal. Buehler’s advanced statistics are atrocious, displaying an absolute refusal to earn strikeouts. He ranks within the 37th percentile in strikeout percentage according to Baseball Savant. Beyond that, he does not limit hard contact, ranking in the 19th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. The 32-year-old’s current 5.13 ERA is going to continue, if not inflate, as the season presses forward and more innings get put on his arm. Fellow starter Vasquez has an even scarier future projection. The 27-year-old ranks in the 23rd percentile or lower in every category besides groundball percentage and average fastball velocity. His numbers thus far have placed him in the fifth percentile of pitching run value. By far the scariest part of the former Yankees' profile is his first-percentile average exit velocity allowed; players are finding barrels against him, and the result is only going to worsen as the year goes on. Lastly is Canning, whose immense surface struggles are only exemplified by his advanced statistics. His first-percentile offspeed value is the most concerning part of his portfolio, but his third-percentile hard-hit percentage allowed is not ideal either. Yet again, the California native is an example of Padres starting pitchers refusing to disallow hard contact with a ninth-percentile average exit velocity allowed. This Padres rotation has struggled majorly through the first half, but it may get worse. Underlying metrics reveal absolutely brutal seasons with no signs of positive regression; whether the Padres buy or sell, the struggling starters need to step up, but it appears they may not be capable.
