International Challenge: Mario vs. Lokdog
Mario Bautista has made his way up in the Men’s Bantamweight Division over the past six years he’s been with the UFC. His record currently stands at number nine in the division’s rankings and has a record of 16-3-0. His opponent, Vinicius Oliveira, has a record of 23-3-0 and has been with the UFC since 2023. ‘Lokdog’ or Vinicius could even cause an upset to Mario’s hard work, given the experience he does have in the combat sports realm. However, this is more Mario’s world, given his six years of experience in the UFC, which mirrors the experience of Rafael Fiziev. Mario is the older of the two, but only by two years, and could even teach ‘Lokdog’ new tricks he has yet to learn inside of this five-round bout!
The bag of tricks that Mario could teach Vinicius would be the art of securing submissions during a takedown. He has made almost half his wins in his record by submitting his opponents. Also, he has secured finishes in other bouts by knockout. The knockouts he has executed range from punches to an impressive flying knee. So, he is a versatile fighter, but it is more likely he’ll rely upon grappling rather than striking in this fight. This could end up being a weakness for him in an ironic twist, as ‘Lokdog’ has an impressive defence against most takedowns attempted by his opponents.
Vinicius is a great pairing for a main card bout at UFC Fight Night because of his ability to avoid a possible takedown attempt by Mario. He should plan to keep the fight in a standing position, as 16 of his 23 wins come from knockouts. Furthermore, if he does so, he should capitalize on the increased reach he has over his opponent. Reach itself could be insignificant since both fighters operate from a switch stance. He will have to be diligent in landing significant strikes as he throws blows less accurately than his opponent. If this small difference is made, he could very well come out on top with a first-round finish!
First-round finishes are not uncommon for either fighter. Mario has five, while Vinicius holds 13 himself, which makes the first round promising enough to be an explosive five minutes. Both fighters will test each other’s resolve here and gauge reach. Mario will even be seeing how far one inch really is when striking. The odds favor Mario so much that he is predicted to win by submission. He could, but Vinicius can counter most of what Mario has to offer, as his experience has had him encounter such situations before. It’s no dispute that ‘Lokdog’ has the skills to go all five rounds with Mario, and as a result, the ending could be down to a decision.
The possibility of a decision-based ending to this neck-to-neck fight is high compared to the likelihood that either fighter will secure a first-round finish through knockout or submission. As such, it should be contemplated that Vinicius will win by decision while resisting many of Mario’s attempts to secure a takedown. This prediction is based on their past fight history and tendencies, but more so on how they complement each other’s skillsets. For example, Mario is a grappler who lost his last fight by decision and failed to secure any submission, while Vinicius’s last fight was won by unanimous decision due to his total strikes. The only way to know for sure who wins will be tuning in at 8:00 EST to see who can come out on top for UFC Fight Night!
