Is a Big Deal Coming for Detroit’s Star Pitcher?
Despite the Tigers being bounced from the playoffs in recent weeks, ace Tarik Skubal has found himself back in the spotlight. This is due to reports that he and the Tigers were recently $250 million apart in their last round of negotiations. The timing of this, shortly after the general manager shot down trade rumors, leads one to believe that this was leaked by Skubal’s camp. This could be for one of two reasons: to put some pressure on the organization to either trade him or sign him to an extension. Now, if that report is to be believed, the numbers could get gaudy.
The reigning and future Cy Young award winner from the American League is in the prime of his career and is careening towards free agency next offseason, which is doomed to reset the market. Skubal is the type of frontline starting pitcher that teams dream of building around. The type that only reaches free agency once every few years. This leaves Detroit with three options: trade him, extend him, or let it ride for one last season.
When looking for comparable contracts, three names jump out. They are Jacob DeGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Let’s start with the most unique one, that is Yamamoto’s. He signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers going into the 2024 season. Including a $50 million posting fee that brings the total value up to $375 million over 12 years, which is about $31 million in average annual value or AAV, when you include the fee. The reason this deal is so unique is that before this, Yamamoto had never thrown a big league pitch, and he also hit free agency at only 25 years old. With the contract carrying him through his age-37 season.
Next up is DeGrom’s contract of $185 million over five years. This is an AAV of $37 million and takes him to his age-39 season. DeGrom, while also arguably a better pitcher than Skubal, hit free agency five years later than him and also had a fair share of injury issues. Finally, the case that is most comparable to Skubal’s is Gerrit Cole. Both performed at similar levels and are slated to hit free agency around similar ages. Cole ended up signing a nine-year contract worth $324 million, which is an AAV of $36 million.
Now the important thing when analyzing these contracts is not to look at the year's number in a vacuum, but at the age at which it is signed through. Cole, Yamamoto, and DeGrom signed contracts that take them through the ages of 37, 37, and 39, respectively. So Skubal can expect to sign a contract that carries him through the ages of 37 or 38. Which would be an eight or nine-year deal. As far as the total value, it is important not to get distracted by the big total numbers. Especially in Yamamoto’s case, which was for 12 years. The AAV is the most crucial part, as that is how much money the player is actually taking home year over year. This is where we would look to DeGrom and Cole with AAVs of $37 and $36 million each. Considering that those contracts were signed a few years ago and the increase in the luxury tax threshold, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for Skubal to sign a contract that has an AAV of $40 million.
That $40 million AAV is a nice round number and would be a solid point of pride for him, his agent, as well as the MLBPA. Don’t be surprised if Skubal, wherever he his, puts up another Cy Young caliber season that the total value of this contract could be pushing $360 million. If he signs a nine-year deal, that would be an AAV of $40 million. If the longest teams are willing to go is eight years, the AAV could creep higher, so the total value beats that of Gerrit Cole and Yamamoto. That would be around $328 million or an AAV of $41 million plus. The $40 million number or the $325 to $330 million plus would be key marks for Skubal as well as the union, so they could very easily become a sticking point if the market doesn’t develop in an overly extreme way.
