Is McLaren at the Bottom of F1’s Big Four Going Into 2026?

F1’s preseason testing is over, so it’s time to speculate on the pecking order when teams arrive in Australia on March 6th. The four teams at the front appear unchanged from 2025, but early signs suggest the order has been shuffled. McLaren dominated last season, clinching the constructors' title with six races to go, but the preseason headlines have been stolen by their rivals. New regulations have given birth to several innovative designs from the teams with title aspirations in 2026.

If McLaren CEO Zak Brown's recent comments are to be taken as honest, he believes his team is a step behind some of the competition. Brown, describing his challengers as the Red guys, the Silver guys, and Red Bull, thinks McLaren is among this big four, but not at the front. The MCL40 has looked quick in the preseason, but there is not much to suggest it is the benchmark for performance. In Bahrain, Oscar Piastri finished with the third fastest time, and his teammate, Lando Norris, was only one hundredth of a second behind him. History and Brown’s comments suggest the papaya outfit is downplaying its true performance, but there is some evidence that rivals have caught up.

Ferrari finished both the Barcelona Shakedown and the preseason tests in Bahrain with the fastest overall time. Charles Leclerc followed Lewis Hamilton’s Barcelona performance with a time eight tenths faster than Kimi Antonelli in second. The red guys’ pace has probably drawn less attention than the unique design decisions on the SF-26. The car’s power unit features an especially efficient turbo, which appears to result in a significant performance advantage on race starts. A winglet over the exhaust and a rear wing that rotates were added to the Scuderia’s list of innovations. If the novelty translates to lap time, the race win drought could be over, Ferrari.

Thanks to Mercedes, F1 fans have become knowledgeable on the subject of fuel compression ratios. The controversial power unit suggested Mercedes had an early advantage for the 2026 season. Considering the defending champs get their power units from the works Mercedes team, McLaren would also inherit the performance gains. Zak Brown and Toto Wolff find themselves as allies waiting for a verdict on the legality of the power unit.

Despite McLaren’s dominance in the 2025 constructors’ championship, Max Verstappen took his title challenge to the final race in Abu Dhabi. His 2026 car has been noted for its efficient power unit. Although the RB22 has not generated headlines for outright pace, in an increasingly electrified era of Formula 1, maximizing battery deployment can be decisive. Verstappen’s late 2025 surge reminded fans that he does not require a dominant car to secure victories.

McLaren looks to have a much more challenging season ahead of them. A successful title defense is far from guaranteed. New regulations have not completely reshuffled the order, but competition at the front may have tightened. For the neutral F1 fan, a relatively evenly matched big four should make for exciting racing in 2026.