Is the Padres Four-Time All-Star Shortstop Poised to Return to Form in 2026?
Late into the 2022 offseason, the San Diego Padres made one of their largest moves in franchise history. It came in the form of a wild 11-year, $280 million contract dished out to premier shortstop Xander Bogaerts. The move came as a massive shock, with the Padres already carrying one of the best shortstops in baseball, Fernando Tatis Jr., who was moved to the outfield, and the new addition was given everyday shortstop duties. For 10 seasons, the shortstop was a key cog in the competing Boston Red Sox lineup. Bogaerts came to the Padres as a four-time all-star who received MVP votes in five consecutive seasons. Yet despite the previous success, he struggled to live up to his hefty price tag.
Production in 2026
As a Red Sox, Bogaerts was widely considered to be in the upper echelon of MLB shortstops. From his initial debut in 2013 to his departure in 2022, the Aruban-born infielder racked up 34.6 WAR while posting an OPS of .814. Nearly all of his production came from his offense, with subpar defense being the only true knock on his Red Sox resume. Despite poor defense and average base running, when playing for Boston, Xander was a shoo-in for an OPS of at least .800 with 15-plus homers. That consistent output has drastically decreased since landing in San Diego.
The former World Series Champions' initial 2023 season is by far his best as a Padre, yet it’s still a far cry from previous production. In 155 games, the five-time Silver Slugger Award winner was able to rack up 4.2 WAR. Offensively, he was solid, posting a .285 batting average with a .790 OPS. The home run production was at its usual pace, with Xander hitting 19 round-trippers throughout the year. Despite the solid season, Padres fans were somewhat disappointed with their new shortstop's production. It was made all the more painful considering the 2023 team's historically tragic season. No accolades were handed out to the 30-year-old in 2023, and 2024 was no different. 2024 was by far the worst season of the former Red Sox's career, with injuries keeping him to just 111 games of .688 OPS baseball. 2025 was a fine enough bounce back, as it saw Boegarts raise the OPS to a halfway decent .720 mark. Yet even with the improvement, the contract dished out to the four-time all-star makes it difficult to get excited about his future in San Diego.
2026 and Beyond
Baseball Savant’s quality of contact metrics are not fans of Bogaerts ’ future production. Throughout his entire career, he has carried a fairly mediocre average exit velocity, but in 2025, he plummeted to the 35th percentile in the category. To make matters worse, the four-time all-star registered a hard hit percentage in the 33rd percentile. He still squared the ball up and registered good chase rates in 2025, but the contact getting even weaker than his Red Sox days is a scary sight. In the early going of 2026, the five-time Silver Slugger has ranked in the 28th percentile of batting run value, not ideal for a player making over $25 million in 2026. Age is a primary concern moving forward as well. The Padres made the puzzling decision to give an already 30-year-old shortstop with somewhat concerning quality of contact numbers an 11-year deal, locking themselves into a contract that has yet to be worth it.
Through 2026, the veteran shortstop has squared up the ball, posting a squared-up percentage in the 90th percentile. Yet the issue is that he lacks the power to capitalize on these squared-up baseballs. If there is a positive to take away from this contract, it is Bogaerts sudden defensive ability. Despite struggling previously in his career, the four-time all-star has posted a fielding run value at least in the 47th percentile since joining the Padres, even posting a career-high 87th percentile ranking in 2025. Although the numbers do not expect a sudden return to Red Sox-level production for the Boston legend, decent enough offensive production is realistically achievable. The issue with that is that average production does not remotely equate to the money being dished out. In 2026 and beyond, Bogaerts must find his former star status to make his contract valuable.
