Is the Raiders Head Coach on a One-and-Done Trajectory?

Times are tough for the fans of the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders. Every time it seems that the Raiders' trajectory has changed for the better, the front office either trades, cuts, or lets a star player walk due to the inability to find success in their rebuild. Their draft history has not been particularly fortunate in not only recent times, but also compared to other franchises. Jon Gruden was the last head coach to lead the Raiders for more than three full seasons, which alludes to his first of two stints from 1998-2001. Things looked brighter when the Raiders brought in former Super Bowl-winning head coach Pete Carroll, who was tasked with leading the Raiders to a playoff win for the first time since 2002, but now he is in the hot seat.

When Pete Carroll was initially brought in with new general manager John Spytek, their introductory press conference sparked a lot of optimism. Carroll was responsible for coaching rookie QB Russell Wilson, the Legion of Boom, winning a Super Bowl in 2013, and being inches away from the first back-to-back championship since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots. Carroll said in his introductory press conference with the Raiders, "It took us a few years to get to the very top of the last couple of programs I was with. We're starting right now, going forward, immediately." The first act as a head coach-general manager duo was to trade for Carroll’s former QB in Seattle, Geno Smith. Smith was the odd man out in Seattle when they signed Sam Darnold to a lucrative deal in free agency. The move was a head scratcher as to how much of an impact a soon-to-be 35-year-old QB would have on a team that had a ton of positional problems. The Raiders would prove doubters wrong and gave fans a light at the end of the tunnel in Week One when they defeated the New England Patriots in his first game as the Raiders’ head coach, making Carroll the oldest active NFL head coach at 74 years old.  

That optimism would instantly fall apart as the Raiders would drop their next four games and 11 of their 12 games before Week 16 of the 2025 NFL Season. Through 14 games in 2025, the 2-12 Raiders have not scored more than 30 points in a single game, been shut out twice, and allowed at least 20 points per game in every game, except their two wins. Rome was not built in a day, but there seems to be no sense of improvement within the on-field play, even after the firing of their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, after their Week 12 loss. The Raiders would also trade one of their top receivers, Jakobi Meyers, to the Jaguars right before the trade deadline. However, Meyers is not the first impactful Raider to depart the team in the last 10 years.

Just to name a few, future Hall of Fame edge rusher Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears in 2018 after failed contract negotiations, and then Amari Cooper was sent to the Cowboys halfway through that same season. A few years later, the Raiders would release their franchise leader in passing yards, Derek Carr, who would sign with the New Orleans Saints before ultimately retiring before the 2025 season due to medical reasons. The next season, the Raiders let RB Josh Jacobs walk in free agency, finding a new home with the contending Green Bay Packers. It just seems like a matter of time before rookie RB Ashton Jeanty or second-year TE Brock Bowers realize Vegas might not be for them. While these players were drafted by the Raiders, there have been a lot of busts and picks that didn’t necessarily work out.

While my examples will be from after the drafting of Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, it would be a disservice not to mention the monumental draft bust of JaMarcus Russell. Russell was selected with the first overall pick in 2007, ahead of Calvin Johnson Jr., Joe Thomas, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis, Adrian Peterson, and many others who are already in the Hall of Fame or may find themselves there in a few years. After Mack and Cooper, the Raiders selected 12 players in the first round in nine total drafts. Karl Joseph, Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs, and Johnathan Abrams all had their fifth-year options declined, letting Joseph and Ferrell walk to free agency after their four-year rookie deal. Jacobs was franchise tagged for his fifth season with the Raiders, but was unable to agree to a deal and left for Green Bay. Abrams was cut halfway through his fourth season with the team.

2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley was traded after his third season with the team, and both 2020 first-round selections Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette were released less than two years into their rookie deals for legal reasons. Ruggs was involved in a fatal car crash, pleading guilty to a DUI that resulted in a death, and was sentenced to prison for anywhere between three and 10 years, while Arnette was released after a video surfaced showing him brandishing a firearm and making death threats. 2021 first-round pick Alex Leatherwood was cut before the beginning of his second season after struggling at tackle and finding no success after the move to guard. Lastly, edge rusher Tyree Wilson, who was selected with the seventh pick in the 2023 draft, has started five games in 47 appearances through three seasons, failing to record more than 30 tackles in a single season.

The only exception to the Raiders retaining a good first-round pick was 2018 first-rounder Kolton Miller, who just signed a three-year deal in the 2025 offseason, but is on season-ending injured reserve. As for the best player on the Raiders defense, Maxx Crosby, who was not a first-round selection, was at the top of trade and free agent discussions this past offseason. The all-pro pass rusher signed a multi-year contract, silencing the offers and rumors from other franchises. If Miller and Crosby stay on the team and are not traded or cut, their contracts would expire at the same time as Carroll's.  

While all but one of Vegas’ first-round picks in the last 10 years have not resulted in a second contract, it does not help player development or locker room morale that coaches are being fired less than three years into each of their tenures. The last head coach to lead the Raiders for longer than three full seasons was Jon Gruden’s first stint, which lasted four full years at the turn of the century. Gruden took a job in Tampa Bay, leading them to a Super Bowl victory over the Oakland Raiders in 2002. This would be the last season that the Raiders would win a playoff game, only making the playoffs twice since then.

Since Gruden’s departure, there have been 14 new head coach hires. Art Shell, who coached the Raiders from 1989 to 1994, with a 54-38 record, reunited with the team in 2006, but went 2-14. Gruden, who also reunited with the team more than 10 years after his first stint, signed a monstrous 10-year deal worth $100 million, but was fired early in his fourth season with a 22-31 record. Including both of Gruden’s and Shell’s second stints and excluding Carroll’s current season, all the Raiders’ head coaches after Gruden combined for a 139-233 record. Jack Del Rio and Hue Jackson were the only head coaches for the Raiders to not have a losing record.

Now sitting at 2-12, the question is whether Pete Carroll is in the hot seat, falling victim to a one-and-done head coaching tenure. Carroll, who has championship and roster-building experience, has coached just two seasons in 19 years with no more than 10 losses. While the Raiders have some offensive weapons, their offensive line and entire defense are problematic. If the Raiders understand their historical woes, they would be smart to try and keep Carroll for at least one more year and see how he handles year two. When you have two wins through 15 weeks, the team can only move forward and up, and a one-and-done firing could cause a morale drop. Worst of all, the Raiders would be stuck with Geno Smith and his $75 million deal for at least one more year, essentially restarting a rebuild again in 2027. At the end of the day, it is on the Raiders' front office to change how they have made roster, draft, and personnel decisions if they want to break their playoff victory drought and make the postseason for the third time in over 20 years.