Massive Shift in Offensive Player of the Year Race: Two Receivers Back on Top
Not too long ago, Jonathan Taylor all but had the Offensive Player of the Year wrapped up. Since then, the Colts have cooled significantly, led by starting quarterback Daniel Jones, who tore his Achilles tendon. The Colts, after a scorching start, are in danger of missing the playoffs, and Taylor has suffered as a result. With Jones out, the passing attack is no longer a threat. Defenses now just bottle up the run and force the quarterback to beat them. Since then, Taylor hasn’t recorded over 100 rushing yards since Week 10 and has one touchdown.
To make matters worse, Taylor is in danger of losing the rushing title with James Cook only 28 yards away. Christian McCaffrey has also slowed down, but to a lesser extent. CMC is still effective, scoring a touchdown each week, but the return of Brock Purdy has lessened the load of CMC. He no longer needs to be Superman for the 49ers to win games. So with both frontrunners cooling off, who's in line for the OPOY? Two receivers stand alone as the best skill players in the league.
Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua is as good as it gets at the receiver position. He’s everything you want out of a receiver. Amazing catch radius, crisp route running, and he’s physical. Paired with a Hall of Fame quarterback in Matthew Stafford, you have one of the most potent passing attacks in today’s game. It is somewhat uncanny what Nacua and Stafford are capable of. They are almost always on the same page, to the point where Stafford has complete trust in Nacua. Currently, he is second in receiving yards, with one game missed and one game in which he left early, at 1,592 receiving yards, 114 receptions, and eight touchdowns. He has a 37% of the target share, which is crazy considering he shares the receiving room with Davante Adams. They work in great harmony with Nacua working the outside, and Adams being money in the red zone. On Thursday, Adams was out with a hamstring injury from the previous week.
The Rams went on the road to play their division rival, the Seahawks, in a game for the ages with massive playoff implications. When he was needed most, he delivered. Nacua put up what may have been the best game of his career, where he posted 12 receptions for 225 receiving yards and two touchdowns against a top-10 Seahawks defense. At the end of the fourth quarter, the Rams were at the Seahawks' 10-yard line in a second-and-10 situation. With four receivers lined up, Nacua ran a corner route with the DB playing solid coverage the whole way. The Rams' play call worked, opening up the first down with the field stretched, through multiple slant routes at four different levels. Still, Stafford threw the ball to Nacua, who, in coverage, made enough separation to go up and get the ball, resulting in a 26-yard chunk play. Just a drop in the bucket of what he and Stafford are capable of. It is pure cinema. By the end of the season, Puka will likely be the receiving and receptions leader, short of a triple crown. This catapults him into the OPOY, especially with the missed games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has solidified himself as a top-five receiver in the league. He’s firmly up there with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. JSN is borderline unguardable. He has only recorded under 79 receiving yards once this season. The absurdity of this stat is only crazier when you consider that he has a 33% target share and a 72% catch rate. JSN is the cog that makes the Seahawks' offense work, and he has played every game this season. Currently, he leads the league in receiving yards with 1,637, with 104 receptions and 10 touchdowns.
Thursday’s shoot-out against the Rams was probably his best game of the season. The former Buckeye left the first half with one target, zero receptions, and zero yards. JSN was constantly put into double coverage by the Rams, with a corner on him followed by a safety shadowing him on the next level. The Seahawks then started to cook with their playcalling in the second half. JSN’s first reception came from a slick playcall in the third quarter. He lined up outside in a bunch set, then the Seahawks used motion to put him in the backfield, pulling his defender in the Rams’ pattern match. Finally, the cherry on top was the Seahawks sending their receivers on deep routes, with a tight end running a route where JSN started with the running back open for a potential screen pass, pulling the linebacker to the left. JSN was now in a one-on-one situation, where he was easily able to get inside and get open, resulting in a 20-yard chunk play. To ice the game, JSN was in a bunch set where he made the DB covering bite hard on his hesi step, before he went behind, hitting a slick in route to catch the touchdown, tying the game in overtime. He has been doing this all season and is incredible. He can’t be stopped; he is simply inevitable, and it is only ever a matter of time before he gets his.
Conclusion
This year's OPOY race has been a fun one and the closest award race of the year. The MVP race was shaping up to be an all-time one, with a potential non-quarterback MVP on the table, but that was short-lived, with Stafford likely to win there. The OPOY isn’t over yet, though, as both the Rams and the Seahawks are still playing for better playoff positions. Their offensive weapons will be on full display heading into the final stretch and most crucial games.
