Matchmaking the Lightweight Division After UFC 315

Although UFC 315 was built around a strong lineup of matchups, its biggest consequence wasn’t just what happened in the cage, it was what it set up next. The main event saw Jack Della Maddalena dominate Belal Muhammad over five rounds in a statement Welterweight win that shook up the rankings and championship picture. While that result directly affected the Welterweight Division, the ripple effects are also being felt in Lightweight, where top contenders and rising stars may now re-evaluate callouts, cross-division fights, and the shifting momentum of UFC matchmaking. UFC 315 didn’t just settle scores; it opened new doors.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira – Lightweight Championship

With Islam Makhachev officially moving up to Welterweight, a move confirmed by both Dana White and the champion himself, the Lightweight Division has been cracked wide open. At the center of that shift is Ilia Topuria, the undefeated phenom who just captured the Featherweight Title and looks poised to chase two-division glory. Standing in his way is Charles Oliveira, the former Lightweight king with a résumé full of top-tier finishes and a hunger to reclaim gold. A matchup between Topuria and Oliveira for the now-vacant title is not only logical; it’s electric. It’s the kind of stylistic clash that fans crave: Topuria’s calculated violence versus Oliveira’s chaotic finishing ability. With Makhachev out of the picture, this is the fight that defines the new era at 155.

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier – High-Stakes Lightweight Clash

Max Holloway may have recently suffered a knockout loss to Ilia Topuria at Featherweight, but when he moved up to Lightweight to face Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, he looked nothing short of spectacular. In one of the most iconic moments of the year, Holloway knocked Gaethje out cold with one second left on the clock to claim the BMF Title, cementing that his skills, chin, and fight IQ translate just as well at 155. Now, with Dustin Poirier announcing his retirement after this fight, Holloway’s victory could potentially put him in line for a Lightweight title shot in a division that’s rapidly changing. Poirier has long been a top contender, but Holloway’s win here would certainly elevate him in the title conversation, making this a high-stakes matchup for both men.

Justin Gaethje vs. Arman Tsarukyan – Title Eliminator

Justin Gaethje may have lost the BMF belt, but he remains one of the most dangerous men in the Lightweight Division. For Arman Tsarukyan, a surging contender coming off a razor-close win over Charles Oliveira, this is the perfect test to prove he’s ready for the championship spotlight. A matchup between Gaethje and Tsarukyan is a textbook title eliminator: Gaethje brings chaos, leg kicks, and violent intent, while Arman offers elite wrestling, cardio, and composure under pressure. The stakes are clear: the winner gets the next crack at the belt. For Gaethje, it’s one more chance at undisputed gold. For Tsarukyan, it’s his breakthrough moment.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Dan Hooker – Dark Horse Contender Bout

Call it unexpected, but the winner of Paddy Pimblett vs. Dan Hooker may suddenly find themselves in the title conversation. With Makhachev’s departure creating a vacuum at the top, there’s room for a breakout star, and both of these fighters have the charisma and skill to seize the spotlight. Hooker, the battle-hardened veteran, has quietly pieced together a resurgence. Pimblett, still divisive among fans, has been steadily climbing with smart matchmaking and improved performances. This fight will determine which of them is a legitimate top-five threat and which one needs to take the long road up.