‘Polar Bear’ Ready to Bring the Pressure Against Petrino at UFC Fight Night 285

UFC

UFC Fight Night 285 will bring two headliners in the form of Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues to the Golden 1 Center Arena. Before they have their day under the sun, two other competitors will be entering the arena in the Men’s Heavyweight Division. These two are none other than 31-year-old Serghei Spivac and 28-year-old Vitor Petrino. Only one of these fighters has a nickname, and that is Spivac, who is also known as ‘Polar Bear’. However, they are ready to make new names for themselves and will look to this bout as the place to do just that!

​Spivac may do this in several ways, considering he's the fighter with the most experience coming into this fight. This is because his fight career sits at 18-6-0. The ‘Polar Bear’ even sits at a defense of 52%, which is slightly higher than his opponent’s. In an ironic twist, he’s not a wholly defensive fighter either. He lands 3.57 strikes on average per minute, which is also higher than his opponent. On the ground, he even dominates like a bear, sitting at 59% takedown accuracy, but with the attempts he makes, he leaves himself open due to scoring a lower takedown defense than his opponent.

​Petrino may not be a bear, but he does have the ability to wrestle one, with his takedown defense being79%. This is higher than his opponent, which suggests the fight may mostly take place standing rather than be decided by submission. He could get the upper hand on his 31-year-old opponent if he keeps up his absorption of only 2.71 strikes per minute. If the fight goes to decision, that statistic will be paramount in the scoring of each scorecard presented by the judges. It would be highly surprising if the 28-year-old does go for a takedown since he’s scoring lower in takedown attempts than his opponent.

​This is why the fight will largely stay on the ground, or at least should, because according to crowd-sourcedpredictions, Spivac wins this fight by decision. The hopeful Petrino can dream and try his might against this Moldovan bear, but it is unlikely he’ll land more strikes than his opponent. He will certainly absorb less, but by being cautious like that, he could deny himself victory. The fight will be almost nonstop pressure, and in dodging strikes, he’ll have to land a few more each round while showing dominance if the fight goes to the ground for a few sparse moments. He could do this, too, but the experienced 31-year-old fighter will most certainly make it hard for him to do so.

​This pressure from both a standing and ground position is why the crowd prediction is centered on being a safe bet. The fight could turn around, though, if the heavy-handed Brazilian is simply more aggressive. However, that’s a tall order for someone who has less skin in the game and a fight career of 14-2-0. ‘Polar Bear’ is motivated as well to win this in order to move up to a possible fifth ranking in the Men’s Heavyweight Division to edge closer to the rank of champion. One thing is certain, though, and that is if the 28-year-old actually pulls out a win from this matchup, much of the division will be happily surprised. The best way to see this matchup of two giants will be, of course, through Paramount+ at 8:00 p.m. EDT!

Matthew Cowan

I am a graduate of Valdosta State University and majored in Biology which led to numerous publications in the academic field. While attending college, I was exposed to Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and started my journey into combining biological concepts to explain game and player’s performances of various sports.

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