Predicting Who Will Make the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase

Eight races remain until the NASCAR Cup Series Chase, back to being determined strictly on points. The stretch contains Sonoma, Chicagoland, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire, and Daytona. Frontrunners such as Denny Hamlin, who is second in points, have already virtually locked themselves into the Chase, while drivers like Connor Zilisch, 35th in points, will likely need to wait until next year. For the drivers in between, these races will be crucial. Here are three drivers I believe will make the 2026 Cup Series Chase and three drivers who won’t.

Will Make It - Ryan Preece

Ryan Preece has put up a solid season after 16 races. He has been in the front in a lot of races, with the 60 Mustang finishing in the top-15 in nine out of the first 11 races. Unfortunately for Preece, his good runs have been cut short in accidents in the Coca-Cola 600 and Michigan. This caused him to fall right on the cutoff in 16th. Preece is historically good at short tracks and flat ovals, so the races of Indianapolis through New Hampshire are where I predict the Connecticut native will get the points to make it to the Chase. 

Won’t Make It - Joey Logano 

Joey Logano is having a flat-out horrible season in 2026. Usually, he is a threat to win almost every week, but this year, he has only had five top-10s and one pole. ‘Sliced bread’ has been a benefactor of the old playoff format that valued luck over consistency, where one win would lock you into the playoffs no matter how your season goes, but the Chase format values points. Logano has been anything but consistent, being in the mid-20s in some races. The 2015 Daytona 500 Champ could get a win at Atlanta or Daytona, but he will need to find the consistency he has struggled to obtain. 

Will Make It - Austin Cindric

Unlike Logano, his Penske teammate Austin Cindric has a better shot at making the Chase. The fifth-year driver has quietly had one of his better seasons. He has a 19.4 average finish, his best since his rookie season, where he had a 16.3. Like Preece, Cindric has shown speed on flat tracks, having a win at Worldwide Technology Raceway in 2024. He also has two superspeedway wins, including the 2022 Daytona 500. With this preferred schedule, Cindric has a likely chance of making his way in.

Won’t Make It - Shane Van Gisbergen

If San Diego had gone differently, I likely wouldn’t have Shane Van Gisbergen on this part of the list. He will likely have a good race this weekend at Sonoma, but the rest of the races are unclear. The Coca-Cola 600 and Nashville were fantastic oval races for ‘SVG’, but he did not keep up that speed at Michigan. San Diego was a must-perform race, but a turn one crash took him out, and now he sits outside of the playoffs. It will be hard to see the Watkins Glen winner from earlier this year getting back to form on ovals. 

Will Make It - Michael McDowell

While his teammates are both winners and are both top 10 in points, Michael McDowell is not one to be counted out. The 2021 Daytona 500 Champ has been a force on superspeedways since the late 2010s and ran up front late in the 2026 Daytona 500. Spire Motorsports is in the midst of a breakout season, which will motivate McDowell to race his way into the Chase, likely at Atlanta or Daytona. Despite being 21st in points, McDowell is only 34 points behind Preece. A 55-point gain from a win would be enough to get the 20-year veteran into the Chase. 

Won’t Make It - Christopher Bell

Each season has its biggest unexpected playoff misses, and Christopher Bell I believe could be this years version. Bell has had the most inconsistent season of his career, sitting 12th in the points and going from a top-five to a DNF to a top-10 in the span of a few weeks. The dirt aficionado is also battling a wrist injury and was replaced by Brent Crews part of the way through the race at San Diego. In the race he fully ran at Pocono, he finished 26th. If Bell keeps having pain from his wrist that causes him to back out or finish past the top-20, the 20 Toyota Camry may enter the playoffs without the signature yellow banner on the windshield.

We are coming down to the final stretch before the 2026 Cup Series Chase. These eight races benefit drivers like Cindric and Preece while hurting guys like ‘SVG’. The return to the Chase has completely turned the competition inside-out, and anything could happen. The final eight regular season races will be crucial for who is able to compete for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship in 2026.