Ranking the Championship Four Ahead of NASCAR Championship Weekend
The time has come for the NASCAR championship weekend. A whole season's worth of work has led to this moment, where four drivers have the chance to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship. For the first time in the Next Gen era, Team Penske will not win the title, as all three of its drivers missed the championship race. Instead, it will be reminiscent of the 2021 title, where it was two Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas against two Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets. JGR enters with Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe, while Hendrick boasts Kyle Larson and William Byron. While I could see any one of these four drivers leaving Phoenix Raceway as the champ, each driver brings strengths and weaknesses to both the track and the race itself.
4. Chase Briscoe
Don’t let the fact that Briscoe is last of the four fool you. I just had to put him somewhere, and unfortunately, he’s here. In the spring race, Briscoe wrecked out after completing 98 laps, but a lot has changed since then. In his first season at JGR, Briscoe has won three races, leads the series with 15 top-fives, and is third in top-10s with 19. In the nine playoff races, Briscoe scored two of his wins and has seven top 10s. The worrisome part for the 19 team is that the engine expired last week at Martinsville, resulting in a last-place finish. A lot will need to go right for Briscoe, but the vital stat to know is that he scored his first career win at Phoenix in 2022, when he raced for Stewart-Haas Racing. With better equipment under his belt, Briscoe could enter as the underdog but leave as the champ.
3. Kyle Larson
The 2021 champion is the only driver in the Championship Four seeking his second title, as all others will look for their first. Larson has been the epitome of consistency in 2025 with three wins, 14 top-fives, 21 top-10s, and 1,106 laps led. He is second in the series in all those categories besides wins, where he is tied for fourth. While he’s been consistent, he is the only driver in the championship field that hasn’t won a playoff race, though he finished second at the Charlotte Roval and Las Vegas. Given that Larson is the only one to have a championship among the four, he may need to tap into that side of himself again to get the job done Sunday to join an elite group of drivers.
2. William Byron
Momentum is everything in any sport or motorsport, and Byron has it all. Faced with a must-win situation in Martinsville, he walked it off and punched his ticket to Phoenix for his third-straight trip to the Championship Four. In the seven Next Gen Phoenix races, Byron has the best average finish of the Championship Four at 8.0. Although points technically don’t matter, I like to look at them, and Byron enters the title race having scored the most points this season. With Penske out of the picture, 2025 might be the time for Byron to rise above and cement his legacy in a season that started with him winning the Daytona 500 for the second year in a row.
1. Denny Hamlin
This might be the final shot for the 20-year veteran. Hamlin has done it all in his career, winning Rookie of the Year in 2006, claiming three Daytona 500s, and his last win put him at 60, which is tied for 10th all-time. If he can finish the job Sunday, Hamlin would have done everything and more in a career, capping it off with that elusive first championship. This is his fifth trip to the Championship Four since it began in 2014. In his four prior trips to the finale, something happened either on track or on pit road that took him out of contention.
At Phoenix, Hamlin has by far the most experience of the Championship Four, having raced there 40 times. He also has the best average finish of drivers across all their races at the track at 10.6. Though Hamlin has only won twice at Phoenix, he’s won the most races this season, that being six, two of which came in the playoffs. If there were ever a time for Hamlin to bring his best to a race, it would be this weekend.
