Should Expectations Change After the 2026 Dolphins First Preseason Game?
Expectations heading into the 2026 season for the Miami Dolphins were at an all-time low heading into this offseason. New general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley gutted the main playmakers from the Mike McDaniel era, releasing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, and defensive end Bradley Chubb. With all those players now gone and the ensuing dead cap skyrocketing for this season, the Dolphins have a better chance of finishing with the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft than going to the Super Bowl. However, after Friday night’s 20-7 loss to the Washington Commanders in their first preseason game, should fans readjust their expectations for this season?
Could Expectations Change in Miami for 2026?
The Dolphins opened the preseason on as high a note as you possibly could for a team with tempered expectations. Following a holding penalty on the opening kick, plus a muffed kick by running back Jaylen Wright, the Dolphins ripped off a 14-play, 93-yard drive, capped off by a De’Von Achane one-yard touchdown run. New quarterback Malik Willis looked just like he did in his limited time on the field in Green Bay, throwing for 43 yards on four completions, his lone incompletion coming from rookie Caleb Douglas, while also rushing for nine yards on two carries. Alongside his nearly flawless debut, Malik Washington seemed to be a go-to target on early downs, racking up three of Willis’ four completions on the night. The offensive line looked as impressive as I’ve seen in a long time watching this team, and the tight ends, namely rookie Will Kacmarek, showed a lot to like.
The starting defense, on the other hand, didn’t have as good a debut in 2026 as the offense. Rookie safety Michael Taaffe gave up a deep out in man coverage, but outside of that, the defense held strong to force an opening-drive punt. Chop Robinson had a nice night, putting pressure on Commander quarterback Sam Hartman, alongside a strong showing in the run game. The interior defensive line looked impressive as well, and the linebacker room showed why they’re the best unit on the team, even with Jordyn Brooks being the only projected starter not suiting up for the game. The secondary will still be pretty rough, with many projected starters sidelined in Maryland on Friday due to injuries, but Chris Johnson looked solid in his first NFL action.
All that said, the second- and third-team players were a total disaster. You expect to see a drop-off in play from the first team to the second, but not to the extent that we saw from Miami on Friday night. The Dolphins went from a borderline-flawless first quarter to surrendering 20 unanswered points and ultimately moving the ball past midfield only once for the rest of the game. Both backup quarterbacks, Cam Miller and Quinn Ewers, looked awful after throwing a combined three interceptions. They had one more completion between the two of them to the Dolphins than they did to the Commanders. After a strong opening drive against the run, Miami gave up 174 rushing yards on 41 total attempts, along with two touchdowns. The Dolphins had the worst run defense in the league last year, and if Kenneth Grant or Jordan Phillips were to go down in the middle of that defense, there’s a chance they could be even worse against the run this year.
All that being said, if the Dolphins can stay healthy, this could be a team that wins a few more games than expected this season. Even going up against mostly backups for Washington, Miami showed what this team could look like at its peak in year one of the Hafley and Sullivan era. Whether that’s what Dolphins fans want for this season is still up in the air, considering a top-three pick in this year’s draft could net them an All-Pro caliber playmaker like Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith or Texas’ Cam Coleman, or their quarterback of the future in Texas’ Arch Manning, Oregon’s Dante Moore, maybe even a LaNorris Sellers or John Mateer if they have the season they’re both capable of. On the flip side of things, exceeding expectations would likely mean that the Dolphins got a lot of things right in a really limited offseason, money-wise. With the expected $88 million in cap space next offseason, the Dolphins could be on the brink of a playoff berth with just three seasons removed from their last stint in the postseason.
