Super Bowl Dreams: Will the Patriots or Broncos Emerge from the AFC Championship Game?
During the NFL Divisional Round, the Denver Broncos narrowly defeated the Buffalo Bills in a thrilling 33-30 overtime victory, while the New England Patriots hosted the Houston Texans in a game marked by mistakes from both teams, but ultimately emerged victorious 28-16. After the Bills/Broncos game, Denver’s head coach Sean Payton announced that starting quarterback Bo Nix had fractured his ankle, and backup Jarrett Stidham would be brought up to speed in anticipation of the AFC Championship. With home-field advantage and an elite defense, the Broncos will do everything they can to keep their Super Bowl dreams afloat. New England is led by MVP candidate quarterback Drake Maye, who is looking to build his legacy and continue this team’s desire for another franchise Super Bowl. No one expected this matchup here to be the AFC Championship Game, and yet the hype continues to build as the two best teams from the AFC face off in what should be a fascinating showdown. The last time Denver made the Super Bowl was 10 years ago at Super Bowl 50, while the Patriots haven’t been since 2019 in Super Bowl LIII. Who advances to Super Bowl LX in the first game of a doubleheader Sunday at 3 p.m. EST?
New England comes into this AFC Championship Game after arguably their worst game of the season against Houston. The Patriots went three for 14 on their third-down conversions, and they also committed two fumbles. Maye threw an interception and was sacked five times. This Texans defense was a tough challenge for the Pats, and the Broncos defense will be just as tough, smart, and capable of derailing the 23-year-old’s wonderful season. New England’s offensive line will need to play a big part in protecting the quarterback more efficiently, so they don’t have a disastrous game like last week. As much as the offense struggled last week, the Patriots’ defense recorded three sacks, a fumble, and four interceptions over Houston, arguably one of the best outings on that end of the field all season. They derailed Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud's play and made Stroud frustrated after all the tight coverages his receivers found. Guys like Christian Gonzalez, Christian Elliss, Milton Williams, Carlton Davis III, Robert Spillane, and K’Lavon Chaisson should look to make a major impact.
Denver’s defense also played a huge part in their Divisional Round win over Buffalo. They collected three sacks, three fumbles, and two interceptions. Through the game’s four quarters, the Broncos had possession of the football for 29 minutes, compared to the Bills’ 41 minutes. This Denver team made the most of their plays on the field, whether that was on offense or defense, which resulted in a massive home win. Just like for the Patriots, the Broncos’ offensive line must protect Stidham at all costs and give the 29-year-old a chance to make plays down the field. Giving Stidham those extra seconds to throw the ball is huge, especially in his fifth career start and quite possibly the biggest game of his career. If the defense can play its part and give the offense the opportunities to score, we may see Denver head to the Super Bowl for the first time in 10 years. Offensive weapons like Marvin Mims Jr., Courtland Sutton, RJ Harvey, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey will need to actively get open for Stidham and help the backup gain the confidence he’ll need throughout this AFC Championship Game. Defensive brutes such as Patrick Surtain II, Alex Singleton, and Talanoa Hufanga will be big pieces on stopping a Patriots defense that has no signs of wanting to slow down.
The two biggest matchups in the AFC Championship Game are between both teams’ offensive lines and defenses. Whichever team protects their quarterback and allows him to make plays will be key. Both the Broncos and Patriots defenses will look to convert as many three-and-outs as possible, allowing the defense to quickly get on and off the field without losing much energy. The defense that makes the big stops and the big plays will give its team a surefire advantage in controlling the outcome of this contest. We could see this matchup become a closely contested game if the defenses are the best they’ve ever looked and the offensive line is doing their part in protecting the quarterback, and helping him make huge plays to push down the field.
Without Nix, it’s going to be a little bit more difficult for Denver to win this game. However, the Broncos have an undeniably great defense, and the thin air in Denver will certainly be an advantage. Maye, along with coach Vrabel, has looked amazing all season long and has re-shaped the Patriots franchise in a singular season. His matchup against Stidham puts New England over the edge in my opinion. We have not seen enough from the 29-year-old quarterback to know if he has the capabilities of following in Nix’s footsteps and leading the Broncos to another Super Bowl appearance. It’s very well possible Stidham shocks the world and shows he deserves a starting spot in this league, yet, coming from a quarterback making their fifth career start, it’s too tough to tell. Which gives me all the confidence that the Patriots will find a way to come out on top, putting themselves in the running for another Lombardi Trophy.
