The 2025 NL Playoff Race: Set in Stone or Headed for a Shakeup?
As the dog days of summer continue into a sweaty August, the National League playoff picture is solidifying. One team has begun to separate itself from the field. While the other two division races, as well as the final Wild Card spot, are still very much in flux. As a reminder, in this new MLB Playoff format, only the top two division winners receive a bye from the first round of the playoffs. So even if the Cubs and the Brewers, or the Dodgers and Padres, finish with the two best records, only the winner is awarded a bye. Now let’s dive in to see who has the best chance at winning their division, as well as a couple of surprise teams that could steal the last Wild Card spot.
The Division Leaders
For the Milwaukee Brewers, they are currently the class of the National League, where they hold the best record. Thanks to their recent hot streak, which has them at 23-7 since the start of July, they have opened up the largest lead out of all the current division leaders. As of now, they appear to be a lock for the playoffs and in pole position to receive that first-round bye thanks to their strong pitching and balanced offense. They are also the only team to rank in the top four in runs scored and runs against.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, the reigning World Series champions, while leading the NL West, are not as high-powered as everyone thought them to be coming into the year. Despite dealing with injuries in the first half of the season, they have managed to more than hold their own. With reinforcements coming, the Dodgers are primed to make a run to secure the division as well as a bye. However, they are in the meantime going to have to hold off the Padres in their own division as well as the winner of the East.
In Philadelphia, the Phillies find themselves in a similar situation to the Dodgers. As they have a small intra-division lead and are also in competition with the winner of the other division. It is not enough for them to hold off the Mets, but they also need to surpass the Dodgers or the Padres if they wind up winning the West. With Kyle Schwarber, hitting the cover off the ball, as well as Bryce Harper returned from an injury earlier this year. They have the potential to go on a run and lock up a bye.
The Wild Cards
For the Chicago Cubs, as of now, have the best record of all the Wild Card teams, yet still sit the furthest away from their division leader. While being four games back is not insurmountable, it will be challenging considering how well the Brewers are playing. Chicago, while being a pleasant surprise this season, are still a legitimate threat with a high-powered offense. If they do wind up overtaking the Brewers for first in the Central, they should be in good position for one of the two byes.
The San Diego Padres smell blood in the water. With their local SoCal rival Dodgers, not appearing as dominant as in years past, they went all in at the trade deadline. With new additions and existing star power, it is certainly possible they could make a push for the NL West title. The challenge that presents itself then is that even though they may have bested the Dodgers, they still need to finish with a better record than the winner of the East. However, there is still the chance that a team on the outside looking in passes them in the Wild Card standings.
This New York Mets team was built to win a World Series, but as of now, they sit in a slightly precarious spot of the last Wild Card. Having signed Juan Soto to the largest contract in the history of professional baseball, there were certainly larger expectations in mind. The potential for this team to take off is still there with their star power and trade deadline additions. The Mets face similar problems to the Padres in that they could potentially get hot and win the division along with a bye, or even end up outside of the playoffs.
The Bubble
The Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, or even the St. Louis Cardinals are still within striking distance. These are the only other teams in the NL that are .500 or above. While both the Giants and the Cardinals traded away players at the deadline, they still possess the talent to potentially make a run if either of the current Wild Card teams stalls. The Reds are the big concern if you are the Mets or Padres. They’re helmed by the great Terry “Tito” Francona, and with a solid rotation, they have a chance to hang around a little longer than they should. If either of the current Wild Card teams start to flounder, the Reds are going to be breathing down their necks.
