The Road to March Madness Begins with the 2026 Big 12 Tournament
With the 2025-2026 NCAA men’s basketball season coming to an end, it is now time for the conference tournaments to start. While some conferences are still finalizing seedings, the Big 12 is set and ready to go for the first round. The point of these tournaments is to award the winners with a bid to the NCAA tournament. After all regular-season and tournament games are played, the selection committee comes together to decide which 37 teams deserve an invitation to March Madness. The Big 12 is a very prominent conference that is a part of the Power 5 Conferences. Notable teams in the Big 12 include Houston, Kansas, Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.
First Round Action Begins in Kansas City
The first round of this conference tournament has four games, all set to play on March 10th. With it being the first round, it is not the most remarkable of teams, but post-season college basketball is known for having miraculous stories and Cinderella runs, so it is important to watch as many games/teams as possible. There are four games in the first round, and they are all hosted at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. The first game is the Baylor Bears versus the Arizona State Sun Devils at 12:30 p.m. EST, where the Bears are seen as the favorite with a 70.1 percent chance to win according to ESPN analytics. Both teams ended the regular season with a 16-15 record, but Arizona State is 12th-ranked while Baylor is 14th-ranked in the Big 12 Conference.
Baylor vs. Arizona State: A Toss-Up to Start the Day
Cameron Carr is the one leading the charge for Baylor. The sophomore is averaging 19 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting an impressive 39 percent from three. Carr is coming off an inspiring game against Utah, where he had 21 points and shot an efficient nine of 13 from the field. As a team, the Bears average over 80 points per game, which is notable for a team that is only positive by one game. Although they are a high-scoring team, they lack presence on the defensive end, with their opponents averaging 77 points, resulting in only a four-point differential.
For Arizona, Maurice Odom leads the team in points and assists. The six-foot-one guard is averaging 17 points per game and 5.9 assists while shooting an excellent 39 percent from three on 7.3 attempts. Odom is coming off a mediocre scoring game against the sixth-ranked Iowa State Cyclones, where he only had 10 points on eight shot attempts. The Sun Devils are averaging 77.6 points as a team, but fall in the same defensive boat as the Bears. Arizona State's opponents also average 77.6 points, leading to a neutral point difference.
Utah vs. Cincinnati: Bearcats Favored in Afternoon Matchup
The second game of the first round is the Utah Utes going up against the Cincinnati Bearcats at 3:00 p.m. EST. Utah finished the season with a dreadful 10-21 record, putting them last out of the 16 teams in the conference. The Utes averaged 74.6 points per game, and their opponents averaged 78.6 points, resulting in a four-point differential in the opponents’ favor. Terrence Brown was the bright spot for Utah this season. The Minneapolis native is averaging 19.8 points and leads the team in assists, but with only 3.8 per game. Although he leads the team in scoring, he struggles to be efficient, shooting 32 percent from three and 76 percent from the free-throw line. In the Utes’ last game of the season against Baylor, Brown had a good game despite the loss. He had 16 points and five assists off a productive seven 11 shooting from the field goal.
The Bearcats are the heavy favorite in this matchup with an 80.9 percent chance to win. They finished with a 17-14 record in the season, making them the 10th-ranked team in the Big 12. Cincinnati is averaging 73.7 points as a team, and their opponents are averaging 67.5, resulting in a 5.6-point differential. This imposing defensive effort is also the 36th best in the NCAA. Baba Miller is leading the team in points, rebounds, and assists, although some of the averages are lower than those of normal D1 teams. Miller is only averaging 13.4 points and 3.6 assists, but picks it up with 10.1 rebounds per game. These points mostly come from two pointers, where he shoots 7.4 per game and only 1.7 threes a game, causing him to shoot 54 percent from the field and an abysmal 20 percent from the three-point range. The Bearcats’ last game was a win against BYU, where the whole starting lineup was in the double digits for points, and Miller had a double-double with 15 points and 10 rebounds.
BYU vs. Kansas State: Cougars Look to Rebound
The Kansas State Wildcats are clashing with the BYU Cougars for the third game of the first round at 7:00 p.m. EST. BYU is the clear favorite in this matchup with an 83.8 percent chance to win. The Cougars ended with a 21-10 record, making them the seventh-ranked team in the conference. BYU came into the season as the eighth-ranked team in the AP top 25 and peaked at seventh. Throughout the season, they kept dropping in the rankings, and after their loss to an unranked West Virginia team on February 28th, they dropped out of the top 25.
As a team, the Cougars averaged 84.4 points, placing them 22nd in the NCAA for average points. Their opponents averaged 75.8 points, leading to an 8.6-point differential. AJ Dybantsa is the star player for the Cougars, who is in the race for the Naismith College Player of the Year and will most likely be a top-five pick in the next NBA Draft. The freshman is averaging an outstanding 24.7 points while also tallying up 6.7 rebounds per game. With this high point average, he is also shooting an impressive 51 percent from the field goal, but he struggles to shoot from three with a 33% shot percentage. BYU’s last game was a win against the 10th-ranked Texas Tech, where Dybansta had a good scoring game, but with terrible efficiency, he had 21 points but shot eight for 25 from the field.
For the Wildcats, they finished on an unimpressive 12-19 record, placing them at 15th in the Big 12. P.J Haggerty is the team leader in both points and rebounds, averaging 23.3 and 5.3. The six-foot-three guard struggles to be efficient, shooting 34 percent from the three-point range and a lousy 69 percent from the free-throw line. Kansas State's last game was a loss to the 14th-ranked Kansas, where Haggerty had 21 points, but off an inefficient eight for 18 shooting from the field. The Wildcats average 79 points as a team, but their opponents average just 1.3 more points than them at 80.3.
Oklahoma State vs. Colorado: The Most Competitive Matchup
The fourth and final game of the first round is the Oklahoma State Cowboys versus the Colorado Buffaloes at 9:30 p.m. EST. This is the only game of the first round where both teams have multiple games above .500, and the analytics show it will be the closest game as well, with the Cowboys only having a 53.2 percent chance to win. Oklahoma State finished off the season with an 18-13 record, resulting in them being the 11th-ranked team in the conference. Although they were never ranked, Oklahoma State had two prominent wins against UCF when they were 25th ranked, and against BYU when they were 16th ranked. The Cowboys are averaging 84.2 points as a unit, but struggle defensively, allowing 82.5 points per game. Anthony Roy is the leader in points for the team, averaging 16.7 points per game, and he shoots efficiently from the three-point range and free throw line, shooting 39 percent and 85 percent. The Oakland Native is coming off a good scoring game, but with a rough shooting percentage. Roy tallied up 18 points against seventh-ranked Houston but shot six for 14 from the field and four for 11 from the three-point line.
For Colorado, they ended the season with a 17-14 record, placing them at 13th in the conference. Isaiah Johnson is the one leading the pack for the Buffaloes, averaging 17 points while also shooting a skillful 38 percent from three. The freshman is coming off an outstanding game against the second-ranked Arizona Wildcats, where he had 28 points and shot 50 percent from the field. Colorado is averaging 79.9 points but struggles to keep their opponents at bay, allowing them to score 78.7 points per game. This matchup will conclude the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, and the second round will start on March 11th at 12:30 p.m. EST.
