The Three Riskiest Signings of the 2026 MLB Offseason
The 2026 Major League Baseball offseason was as eventful as ever, with numerous clubs making sizable commitments that could change the future of their franchise. This winter, a total of ten different players signed contracts worth over $100 million. With that being said, there’s no doubt that several deals handed out this offseason were incredibly risky for teams hoping to compete long-term. No player is perfect, and factors such as age, injury history, and underlying numbers can give reason to believe that some of these massive contracts could negatively affect franchises for years to come.
Ranger Suarez to the Boston Red Sox for Five Years, $130 Million
It's shocking that with how much velocity is valued in the modern era of pitching, the second-largest free agent contract handed out to a starting pitcher went to an arm like Ranger Suárez. The 30-year old’s fastball averaged just 90.7 mph last season with the Phillies. This put him in just the seventh percentile of all major league pitchers. That’s not to say that he hasn’t still found a way to become an effective big league arm, though. He made a total of 26 starts during the 2025 season with Philadelphia. The lefty pitched to a 3.20 ERA with an 8.6 K/9 and a 1.22 WHIP; obviously, these are great numbers at first glance. Suarez pretty much exactly fits the description of a pitch-to-contact arm. Limiting hard contact is what he does best. The 2024 all-star held opposing hitters to an average exit velocity of just 86.5 mph. This is a very good mark that puts him in the 95th percentile. Granted, this is something that definitely makes Suarez have a high floor, assuming he can bring his excellent command over to Boston. With that being said, it’s really hard to foresee the Venezuelan native pitching better than what we’ve already seen out of him. He’ll be one of the league’s top-paid starting pitchers for the next several seasons. It’s already really hard to be an elite starting pitcher, but it’s even harder if you can’t generate a lot of swing and miss. Opposing batters only whiffed on 22.2% of his pitches last season, a very poor mark that put him in the 24th percentile.
Josh Naylor to the Seattle Mariners for Five Years, $92.5 Million
It’s safe to say that plenty of Mariners fans are thrilled to have Josh Naylor back in Seattle after how impactful he was for them down the stretch last season. The 28-year-old started playing the best baseball of his entire career at the perfect time in terms of being able to land a large free agent contract. He was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners during the trade deadline last season, and he was one of the best trade deadline acquisitions. Naylor played much better after he was traded, as he put up a 2.2 bWAR in his 54 games with the Mariners, compared to the 0.8 bWAR he put up in his first 93 games of last season with Arizona. The former first-round pick was also phenomenal in the postseason and was a key part of Seattle’s playoff run. In his 47 plate appearances in the postseason, he had a .966 OPS with three home runs. The reason that Naylor is a risky signing for Seattle is that a small sample size of just 66 games greatly increased his demand on the free agent market. The Canadian native has always been a decent player in the big leagues, but up until August of last season, he wasn’t a guy that you would expect to command a contract upwards of $90 million. He has a career bWAR of just 8.4 despite 2026 being his eighth big league season. The Mariners' decision to re-sign Josh Naylor to such a lucrative contract just seems to be a textbook case of putting too much stock into a small sample size of plate appearances.
J.T. Realmuto to the Philadelphia Phillies for Three Years, $45 Million
J.T. Realmuto is another fan favorite that reupped with his team this offseason. It seemed like his time with the Phillies had possibly come to an end after seven seasons as the team's starting catcher. That was not the case, as Philadelphia still made the decision to bring him back even after a down year in 2025. There was a time, just a couple of seasons ago, when the almost 35-year-old was pretty much unanimously considered to be the best backstop in the game. After the 2022 season, he finished seventh in NL MVP voting while winning the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove Awards for the catcher position. He’s fallen off quite a bit since then, as the three-time all-star was actually below average in most offensive and defensive categories last season. In 134 games, he posted a .700 OPS, which is 19 points below the major league average of .719. His power numbers were also much worse than in previous years; his 12 home runs were the fewest he had hit in a full season since 2016. Defensively, he had one of the most interesting profiles from last season. He was still elite at throwing out runners with a plus-six caught stealing run value, which was in the 95th percentile. However, he was also a very poor pitch framer with a minus-eight framing run value, a very poor mark that put him in the seventh percentile. He was also not an effective blocker behind the plate, as his minus-four blocking run value was in the 13th percentile. The Phillies' electing to bring back Realmuto just seems like a reluctance to move on. The metrics show that he’s clearly taken a massive step back since his prime years. It’s very hard to see him being worth anywhere near $15 million per year in his age-37 season during the final year of his new deal.
