The UFC 323 Showdown Set to Explode: One Rises, One Falls
Jan Blachowicz will finally face Bogdan Guskov or ‘Czarevitch’ in what has been a reshuffling of the card stack for UFC 323. Originally, the fight was meant to be held at UFC Qatar on November 22nd but was rescheduled to UFC 323 instead. This was partly due to the title fights being held at the Bantamweight and Flyweight classes. This fight pairs well for UFC 323, because of the stats of both fighters, which promise spectators a definitive conclusion on which fighter is the better one at this weight class. Blachowicz currently holds a record of 29-11-1, compared to ‘Czarevitch’s’ 18-3-0. So, experience is in Jan’s corner. However, he does not seem to finish his fights as early as Guskov, leading some to speculate that Blachwicz could fall victim to an early KO/TKO. This scenario of an early knockout would involve Guskov being consistent on landing more strikes per minute than Jan. It is likely that this could occur alongside the high likelihood that Guskov is more accurate with his strikes than Jan on average. These chances of that happening should be attributed to the reality that the averages are tied to time in the cage. Since the older fighter has more experience, it's likely his averages are higher due to that.
Once that is understood, it’s entirely clear why Blachowicz is the crowd favorite to win this bout for multiple reasons. These include that he has superior reach on his opponent and a better defense while standing or on the ground. He has even demonstrated that he takes down more of his opponents to the ground than Guskov to grind down their will to continue. He could do that in this matchup if Guskov closes in to decrease the reach between them, only to fall prey to a takedown that upsets his rhythm midway through the fight. This strategy would place Jan in a great position to win the fight by decision because it would show dominance and exhaust his opponent. The exhaustion would then be a great opportunity to land more strikes than ‘Czarevitch’. Regardless, if he simply doesn’t do that by Round Two, the judges could decide to hand a crucial decision point to Guskov.
The conclusion of this fight could be decided by a decision, too, rather than an impressive submission. Both fighters have the capability, as they are of the same weight and have almost no difference in height levels, creating an opportune moment to throw each other off of a single leg or sweep. One hopes that the losses Jan has experienced in the past do not carry over to his morale in the current fight, where he lost both of his last fights by decision. Guskov does not have this problem and has currently won four of his past five fights! The fight may not be a title, but this matchup promises a title fight outcome where one fighter will rise, and one will fall on December 6th at UFC 323!
