The Wait is Over: Topuria vs. Oliveira Set for UFC 317
After months of speculation, Dana White has finally announced that the main event of UFC 317 will be Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira for the vacated Lightweight Championship. Following Belal Muhammad’s loss to Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315, reigning Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev seized the opportunity to move up in weight, a move he’s long pursued. With the belt now up for grabs, the UFC is delivering a blockbuster matchup between two of the sport’s most electrifying names: an undefeated phenom making his Lightweight debut, and a seasoned former champion hungry to reclaim his throne. How do these two fighters stack up, and what will it take for either man to leave UFC 317 with the gold? Let’s break it down.
Ilia Topuria
The former Featherweight Champion is coming off back-to-back highlight-reel knockouts over legends Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Now moving up to what he calls a more natural weight class, Topuria is aiming to add even more power to his already devastating game. Known for some of the sharpest boxing in the UFC and slick head movement, Topuria is also a highly skilled wrestler, making him one of the most well-rounded threats in the sport. To beat Charles Oliveira, Ilia will need to manage the size difference. Oliveira stands three inches taller with a significant reach advantage. When engaging in striking exchanges, Topuria must close the distance carefully, avoid overcommitting, and maintain a tight high guard to defend against Charles’ dangerous kicks, particularly head kicks that could change the fight in an instant. With a strong 64% striking defense, Topuria has proven he can avoid damage, but he’ll need to be flawless against one of the UFC’s deadliest finishers.
Charles Oliveira
A true veteran of the sport, Charles Oliveira holds the UFC record for most submission wins at 16. Even with this impressive record, his game isn’t limited to the ground. Charles pairs his elite jiu-jitsu with sharp, unorthodox striking and a versatile kicking arsenal, making him a dangerous threat everywhere. Against Topuria, Oliveira’s key to victory will be maintaining range and using his jab effectively. With Topuria’s speed and takedown threat, throwing a high volume of kicks could be risky, potentially opening him up to counters or takedowns. Expect this fight to turn into a high-level boxing match at times, where Charles will need to avoid the pocket and punish Ilia on the outside. If Topuria gets reckless, Oliveira’s experience and submission threat on the ground could quickly turn the tide.
Conclusion & Prediction
This is an exciting match-up, a showdown between two of the UFC’s most exciting, well-rounded finishers. Both men can end the fight on the feet or the ground, and both have proven they’re willing to trade in dangerous positions. Topuria’s undefeated record comes with an aura of invincibility, while Oliveira’s resume is littered with victories over former champions and top contenders. Expect this fight to stay standing early, with both men looking to test each other’s chin. While Oliveira may invite the takedown with his submission skills, Topuria’s top pressure and ground awareness make that a dangerous gamble. This one’s going to be fast, violent, and dramatic. With the momentum of back-to-back knockouts and a move to a weight class where he feels at home, I see Topuria’s speed and power overwhelming Oliveira by the midway point of the fight. Either way, UFC 317 has secured a main event worthy of International Fight Week, and fans are in for a war.
