Way too Early Player of the Year Race Predictions
The 2025-26 college basketball season will be a soft reset for the sport. Out of the 15 All-Americans from last season, 12 of them will not be returning, making the National Player of the Year race as wide open as ever. Guys like Ryan Kalkbrenner, Johni Broome, Mark Sears, Hunter Dickinson, RJ Davis, and Walter Clayton Jr., who have headlined the sport for multiple years, will be absent for the first time. With the largest wave of transfers in history, talent is scattered across the country, setting up an unpredictable pool of candidates. The door is open for a player to become the new face of the sport, but they will likely have to do so in a chaotic, heated race.
Heading into the season, it’s safe to say the 3 returning All-Americans have the highest odds of being the Player of the Year that being Braden Smith, JT Toppin, and PJ Haggerty. Smith is the only first-team returner, making him the preseason favorite. The crafty floor general will spearhead one of college basketball’s best teams in Purdue, setting the team’s offensive pace and being the primary playmaker. Smith will have a top-notch supporting cast around him, resulting in an ideal POTY formula. Both Toppin and Haggerty clinched second-team honors last season and made the surprising decisions to bypass the NBA Draft. Toppin was nothing short of dominant last season, averaging 18.2 points accompanied by nine and a half rebounds, receiving the Big 12 Player of the Year award. Meanwhile, Haggerty has been one of the most complete scorers in the country, with the best two seasons at Tulsa and Memphis, averaging 21.4 points a game. The former AAC Player of the Year moved to a new home at Kansas State, where his production will be center stage.
Beyond the returning All-Americans, there’s a small crop of returners who have the chance to reach Player of the Year status. Smith’s teammate, Trey Kaufman-Renn, was an All-American honorable mention and could be in line for a major leap. Renn was Purdue’s leading scorer last season, averaging 20.1 points, and should reach a new level of dominance this year as one of the sport’s best interior presences. Staying within the Big Ten, Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg is an interesting candidate. The former JUCO standout was the top transfer in the country after producing elite numbers at UAB. A lot would have to go right for Yaxel to be a POTY candidate, but the talent on both sides of the ball is there to do so. Guards such as Tahaad Pettiford, Otega Oweh, and Emanuel Sharp also warrant attention as dark horse candidates. Pettiford will be Auburn’s centerpiece as a dynamic lead guard who’ll start for the first time. Oweh broke out under Mark Pope last season, with a rare confidence on both sides of the ball. Sharp put together an impressive tournament run and should follow in the footsteps of LJ Cryer, Jamal Shead, and Marcus Sasser as Houston’s next high-usage guard that thrives in Sampson’s system.
Similar to this season, the race should also include top-notch Freshmen. AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cam Boozer make for one of the best freshmen trios we have ever seen and should produce right away. Dybantsa will be the primary option for BYU’s NBA-esque system, where composure, athletic prowess, and shot creation should thrive. Peterson will be Kansas’s best recruit in a long time, as a shifty combo-guard who’s constantly improved throughout his career. Finally, Boozer has an NBA-ready body with polished skills that Jon Scheyer has notoriously maximized throughout his years at Duke.
