Week One Firestarter: Bulls vs. Broncos in a Battle for Respect

Tomorrow, the Boise State Broncos will face off against the USF Bulls at 5:30 pm at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. When two teams with differing strengths collide, the outcome is anything but certain. Boise State, which averaged 32.1 points during last season, enters with new contributors on offense, potentially giving them a powerful force. However, USF, which put up 295 points in its bowl games during the 2024 season, has a strong defense; but with new players coming in, this could be an advantage or disadvantage, with both teams capable of shifting. Momentum, this clash could come down to execution in the trenches, a late-game drive, or a critical turnover. Either side has the tools to walk away with the win.

With an overall rank of 74 and a conference record of 7-0, Boise State has had its ups and downs in the previous season. Despite that, they could win this game right from the start due to their remarkable offense, featuring talented players like Ashton Jeanty, Malachi Nelson, and Kage Casey. RB Ashton Jeanty has accumulated 4,769 rushing yards and 50 rushing touchdowns over his college career, making him a big part of the offense. QB Malachi Nelson averages 128 passing yards per game and -5.5 rushing yards per game; Kage Casey plays a crucial role in the offense that averages 214.9 rushing yards per game. While Boise State's offensive firepower is undeniable, consistency will be key. If Nelson can limit turnovers and the rushing attack stays sharp, they'll have every chance to dominate this game.

Unfortunately, Boise State does struggle defensively. Last season, they allowed 241.4 passing yards per game and seven forced interceptions. Their special teams also lacked consistency last season. They surrendered a "kick six" touchdown and multiple long returns that swung momentum. In addition, they allowed the other team to kick punt coverage 22.2 yards per return. If Boise State's defense and special teams are not locked in this game, the win could go to USF.

Ranked overall 67 and with a record of 7-6, USF did moderately in the 2024 season. With the rebuilding they've been doing in the preseason, they could win this first game. Their offense has a lot of potential, filled with a veteran like Thomas Shareder as well as some new players like Connor McLaughlin. McLaughlin could be a significant contributor due to his record at Stanford in 2024; he logged  238 offensive snaps without a single penalty. USF's defense is strong with S/LB Mac Harris and LB Jhalyn Shuler at the heart of it. Mac Harris showed the most promise with a large number of 82 tackles in the previous season. Questions will swirl around how quickly the new pieces gel, but with a seasoned offensive line and a linebacking duo hungry to prove themselves, USF could have week one go their way.

Yet, USF has difficulties with its offense and its special teams. Last season, they made 38.9% of third-down conversions. Additionally, their field goal rate is 71.4%, and they are 0-3 on onside kick recoveries. If those inefficiencies persist, especially in high-pressure moments, they could easily find themselves trailing early and struggling to close the gap.

Boise State and USF share a heated rivalry, and the stakes are high. Whichever team comes out on top will earn the bragging rights of defeating a longtime adversary. From the way it looks, USF has short odds to win, despite having many promising players and an outstanding defense. They are 7-6 despite lingering questions about consistency. Bosie State has won three games against USF, while USF has won only two. Boise State has a higher probability of winning this game if its defense can stay strong; they are 11-1. Although USF could win this Game if their offense and special teams work hard, and if Boise State's defense is not focused. With promising talent and a revamped scheme, the Bulls have a real shot at flipping the script. In a fierce showdown between longtime rivals, I'm taking USF 24-21 as Boise State drives stalls in the red zone.