What Have Been the Biggest Upsets of the NCAA Conference Tournaments So Far?
The NCAA 2025-2026 quarter and semifinals are officially underway in the conference tournaments. One of the most special parts of both March Madness and the conference games is the upsets, when the underdog defies the odds and comes out on top. Along with the upsets are the Cinderella stories. One upset win does not necessarily make a team a Cinderella, but it gives them the momentum they need to make a push in March Madness. The most basic concept of an upset win is when an unranked team beats a ranked team. Although it is very important to look at the analytics before the game to see who is statistically favored, because even if it is a ranked vs unranked matchup, the teams could just be within a few games of each other, which the analytics will then give the ranked team just a slight edge instead of a massive percentage chance to win the game. With Selection Sunday coming up on March 15th, there are going to be teams that thought they would have an automatic bid by winning their conference championship, but which teams will not get this privilege?
Saint Mary's Suffers the First Upset Loss
The Saint Mary's Gaels were the 21st-ranked team going against an unranked Santa Clara team. Both teams had very close records: Saint Mary's was 27-4, and Santa Clara was 25-7. Although the records were similar, the Gaels had a 69.7% chance to win and ended up losing 76-71. For the Broncos, Sash Gavalyugov was the star of the game. Coming off the bench, he had 23 points and six assists, while also shooting nine for 16 from the field and making five three-pointers. Alongside him was Elijah Mahi, who tallied up 19 points and seven rebounds while also shooting nine for 16 from the field.
When it comes to Saint Mary's, Paulius Murauskas and Mikey Lewis were the shining lights for the team. Murauskas had 26 points and eight rebounds while shooting an efficient nine-for-15 from the field. Lewis totaled 23 points, with a mediocre eight for 17 shooting from the field and an inefficient three for nine from the three-point line. They were the only two starters to get more than four points, and only one other player got into the double digits, which was Andrew McKeever with 11 points. It was a close game throughout, with the score 35-32 at halftime, and the Gaels went on to win. With 2:38 left in the second half, Saint Mary's had a one-point 69-68 lead, but this is when Santa Clara went on an eight-to-two run to end the game and move on to the West Coast Conference final.
UMass Ruins Miami of Ohio's Perfect Season
The 20th-ranked Miami of Ohio Redhawks' loss marks the second upset of the conference tournament games. The Redhawks were all the talk going into the postseason due to their undefeated 31-0 record, and they were heavily favored with a 75% chance to win. For Miami of Ohio, it was a well-rounded scoring game with all of the starters getting into double digits for points. Brant Byers was the leading scorer for the Redhawks, scoring 17 points while also getting five rebounds. Even though he led the team in scoring, he also struggled to be efficient, shooting one for seven from the three-point line. The key battle for the Redhawks in this game was making a defensive presence. While they held UMass to 20% shooting from the three, the Minutemen did a stellar job at being efficient in the midrange and the paint. They made over half of their field goals by shooting 52%. After this loss, the Redhawks' March Madness hopes are now at risk. Many will believe that since they had an undefeated season, a loss in the conference tournament should not disqualify them from a chance at a national championship. Now it will be up to the selection committee to decide if Miami of Ohio deserves a bid into the March Madness tournament.
The Minutemen were 16-15 entering this game, and now have a wave of momentum after beating the first-ranked team in the conference. It was a group effort for UMass, with four of the five starters reaching double digits in points, but Leonardo Bettiol was the star of the game. The senior forward had an impressive 25 points and eight rebounds while shooting 66% from the field. Behind him was Marcus Banks Jr., who tallied up 18 points and five rebounds. Although the Hampton native had a good scoring game, it came despite a rough shooting performance: six-for-15 from the field. The next game for UMass is against Toledo in the MAC tournament semifinals on March 13th at 5:00 p.m. EST.
Miami Gets Revenge on Louisville
The 24th-ranked Louisville Cardinals' 78-73 loss to the Miami Hurricanes marks the third and most recent upset of the conference tournament games. In the last game of the season, the Hurricanes were ranked 22nd and lost to Louisville, which then pushed Louisville into the top 25. Miami actually had a better record going into this game, 24-7, and the Cardinals were 23-9. Although they had the worst record, Louisville was heavily favored, with a 72.6% chance of winning.
For the Cardinals, Ryan Conwell and J'Vonne Hadley were leading the charge. Conwell had 22 points and nine rebounds, but shot terribly, going eight for 20 from the field and one for 10 from the three-point line. Hadley had a much more efficient game with 19 points and shot seven for 12 from the field and two for three from behind the arc. The rest of the starting lineup struggled to score, with Isaac McKeenly being the third leading scorer with only six points. This game was also a nail-biter through the first half, with the Cardinals winning 38-37. However, Miami entered the second half ahead and held on for the rest of the game.
Malik Reneau was the leading scorer for the Hurricanes, where he had 24 points and six rebounds while shooting eight for 17 from the field. Tru Washington was the spark off the bench, the second-leading scorer, with 17 points and two-for-three from the three-point line. This game marked a statement win for Miami by getting their revenge where it matters most. The Hurricanes will play the number 10th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers on March 13th at 7:00 p.m. EST.
