What Will the Mets Rotation Look Like Moving Forward?
As the calendar turns to October, the dust settles on an underperforming 2025 season. The New York Mets' front office watches the playoffs from the safety of their living rooms, facing a critical juncture. That is how they plan to address the starting rotation for this next season and the years going forward. As assembled this past season, it was an amalgamation of injury-plagued veterans and a promising, but unproven, wave of top prospects.
The Riddle of the Returning Arms
The core of the issue with this rotation lies in the instability of the veterans still under contract. This applies in particular to potential and past ace Kodai Senga, who has missed significant time over the last two seasons. When he did come back from injury, he was wildly ineffective and wound up being demoted to the minor leagues. Mets President of Baseball Ops. David Stearns was quoted as saying that it would be “foolish” to count on Senga for 30 starts next season.
Similarly, the status of left-hander Sean Manaea is concerning after he posted an ERA north of 5.50 in the second half of 2025 while pitching through elbow issues. Fellow veteran David Peterson, arbitration-eligible for the final time, showed flashes of brilliance early on but faded badly down the stretch, raising questions about his future role—whether as a starter or a bullpen asset. The one good story of the season was the seamless transition of Clay Holmes from a high-leverage reliever into a legitimate mid-rotation starter, giving the Mets one dependable piece. However, relying on him as a top-of-the-line arm remains far from ideal. Additionally, Frankie Montas and Tylor Megill are going to miss next season due to injury.
The Rise of the Young Guns
The most exciting development, and the true source of optimism, is the emergence of the club’s pitching prospects. Right-hander Nolan McLean appears ready to anchor the rotation from the jump in 2026, dominating in his eight big-league starts. Potentially joining him is Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat gives the team an incredible foundation. While Tong and Sproat are likely to begin the year at Triple-A Syracuse, their successful, albeit brief, big-league cameos in 2025 suggest they are only a phone call away. The forgotten man in this conversation is Christian Scott, who will be returning from Tommy John surgery by the spring.
What Does this Mean?
As of now, none of the names listed above has the floor of an opening day starter for a team with championship aspirations. While the team cannot count on any of the veterans to perform at a high level, it is going to be extremely difficult to move on from them or assemble a rotation without them. Which leaves them stuck between a rock and a hard place. Right now, Clay Holmes and Nolan McLean are the only ones pencilled in with any certainty for next season. Even Clay Holmes’ role might be somewhat reduced, as towards the end of the season, he was partnered with Sean Manaea in a piggyback start with each contributing four innings, combining for eight. Hopefully, at least one of Manaea, Senga, or Peterson can rediscover their ace-like ceiling, and then one more can reestablish themselves as a middle rotation arm. That makes four Major League-caliber starters when mixed with Holmes and McLean. Finally, maybe one of the three other young arms can fill in the back end of the rotation. That would mean five of the eight starters perform up to expectations when only two did this past season. In a perfect world, they add another front-line arm in the offseason, but that does not seem likely given David Stearns' past aversion to giving out long-term contracts to starting pitchers. While the long-term future is bright with the young kids under team control for at least five more years this season, the rotation will be a balancing act.
