What’s Next for the Miami Dolphins if They Cut Their Franchise Quarterback
The Dolphins were once the NFL’s hottest team. With the addition of Tyreek Hill in 2022 and a young, offensive-minded coach in Mike McDaniel, Miami’s team instantly became one of the most explosive and exciting offenses in the league. The peak of the Dolphins' run came in Week Three of the 2023 season, with a historic 70-20 win over the Broncos. Then the house came crashing down, partially spurred by the NFL’s weak concussion protocol. Now the Dolphins find themselves staring down the barrel of a rebuild with a gargantuan dead-cap hit. So, what’s next for the Dolphins? Whether or not they decide to move on from their quarterback, the Dolphins are heading for a new era in Miami.
The Tragic Tale of Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa was a phenom in college. After winning a National Championship in his freshman season, he rode that momentum throughout college. Finishing fourth in all-time passing yards for the Alabama Crimson Tide and capping off his college career with 474 completions, 7,442 passing yards, 87 touchdowns, and just 11 interceptions. Unfortunately, Tua also suffered a major injury, ending his junior season. During a game against Mississippi State, he was sacked by two defenders, resulting in a broken nose, a concussion, a dislocated hip, and a fracture in the posterior wall of his acetabulum, the socket of the hip where the head of the femur fits. Any injury involving the hip is huge, considering it is the strongest bone in the human body. Tua had to be air-lifted to a nearby hospital immediately. The injury derailed his position as the best quarterback of the draft, being replaced by LSU’s Joe Burrow. The former National Champion made a full recovery, and the Dolphins took their chance by drafting him with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The Dolphins chose to sit him out to start the season, allowing him to recover from his injury and learn from veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tua made his first appearance in Week Six, being named the full-time starter in Week Eight. The Dolphins missed the playoffs, finishing with a 10-6 record, 6-3 with Tua as the starter. The former fifth pick finished his rookie season with 186 completions, 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Somewhere along the line, a feud was brewing between head coach Brian Flores, the front office, and Tua. The drama was spilling into the media and turning Miami into a media circus. Despite the outside noise, the Dolphins finished 2021 with a 9-8 record, making NFL history in the process. The Dolphins started the season 1-7 before rallying to win eight of their next nine. Once again, Miami found itself eliminated from the playoffs despite back-to-back winning seasons.
In the prelude to the 2022 season, everything came to an explosive head in Miami. The Dolphins fired Flores due to communication issues. Flores did not go quietly, reporting owner Stephen Ross for nefarious activities, like paying him for each loss. The NFL launched its own investigation and found Ross guilty of impermissible communication with New England quarterback Tom Brady and New Orleans head coach Sean Payton. The punishment was a $1.5 million fine for Ross and the Dolphins, and the stripping of their 2023 first-round and 2024 third-round picks. Miami was still able to load up in the offseason, grabbing Mike McDaniel from the 49ers. McDaniel had earned a reputation as an innovative offensive mind. Tyreek Hill had made it known that he wanted a new deal, but the Chiefs were unwilling to offer one. He forced his way out and landed at his preferred destination in Miami. Alongside the 2021 sixth overall pick, Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins had assembled an elite receiving core and were going all in with Tua at the helm.
The Dolphins started hot in 2022. The offense was firing on all cylinders, and the team’s full potential was showcased in a Week Two comeback victory against the Ravens. Tua threw for 469 passing yards along with a franchise-tying six touchdowns. Coming off a massive win, the Dolphins faced off against division rival the Buffalo Bills. During the game, Tua took a big hit and almost fell over trying to walk it off. He cleared concussion protocol and was allowed to return to the game. The Dolphins called it a back injury. Despite his return, the NFL Players' Association suspected that Miami had violated the NFL’s concussion protocol. Everything seemed ok until the next week, during a primetime game against the Bengals, when a defender sacked Tua with a clean hit but brought him down hard. What happened next was a horrific picture for fans at home and his family in the stands. Tua went into a fencing position and seized up. The medical team quickly got him on a stretcher and rushed him to a nearby hospital. Just two days later, the NFLPA fired the consultant who allowed him to return to the Bills game. The NFLPA revised the concussion protocol to better prioritize player safety. The former Alabama quarterback returned to action in Week Seven. He went on a tear upon his return, throwing for over 230 yards in eight out of nine games. Unfortunately, in Week 16, Tua took another big hit against the Packers. He didn’t look the same again, throwing three interceptions in the fourth quarter. McDaniel revealed the next day that their franchise quarterback was in the concussion protocol, ending his season. The Dolphins also made their first playoff appearance since 2016, but lost to the Buffalo Bills 34-31.
There was a lot of debate about whether Tua would return. He took an unnatural amount of head trauma in rapid succession. The former Alabama QB himself said that he had considered retirement in the offseason. Despite the debate, the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option. 2023 was the Dolphins’ franchise quarterbacks’ best season as a pro. He played all 17 games, led the league in passing yards, and made his first Pro Bowl. He finished 2023 with 388 completions, 4,624 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The Dolphins made the playoffs again, going back-to-back. They ran into the eventual Super Bowl Champions in the first round, losing 26-7 in Kansas City.
In the offseason leading up to 2024, the Dolphins signed Tua to a massive $212 million extension with a $42 million signing bonus and $167 million guaranteed, locking him up until 2028. A reward for the 2023 season and the front office showing faith in their quarterback. The former college phenom started hot again, passing for 338 yards in Week One. In Week Two, Tua suffered another concussion, landing him on injured reserve. He returned in Week Eight, where he didn’t seem to slow down despite the concussion. In Weeks 11-13, he went nuclear, throwing for over 300 yards in each game and at least two touchdowns, with no interceptions. The Dolphins missed the playoffs for the first time in three years, and Tua sat out the last two games of the season. 2025 is where the wheels finally fell off. He didn’t look like the same man who led the league in passing in 2023. He had four games with multiple interceptions and nine games total in which he threw at least one interception.
To make matters worse, Hill suffered a brutal knee injury, tearing multiple major ligaments in his knee. The left Hill’s future in Miami is uncertain, a massive blow to the receiving corps. Tua was eventually benched in Week 16 in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers. Following the disappointing 2025 season, the Dolphins fired head coach McDaniel, ending his era in Miami. The front office continued to dismantle the team, releasing Hill and Bradley Chubb. We are now in the predicament the Dolphins are facing.
What’s Next?
The first order of business was to sign a new head coach and general manager. Along with McDaniel, former general manager Chris Grier was fired shortly after McDaniel. The Dolphins locked up long-time Packers executive Jon-Eric Sullivan on January 9th. Just 10 days later, on January 19th, the Dolphins signed Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Next, the new front office got to work on the cap situation. First, by cutting Hill, he lowered the cap hit from $51 million to $28 million, now a dead cap. Next, Chubb, whose cap would be $31 million, will be lowered to $23 million, saving almost $10 million in cap space. With two cornerstones of the team gone, it can be assumed that the Dolphins are headed for a rebuild. Currently, they are five million dollars over the salary cap, with more changes to come. Waddle is still on a good deal, only accounting for $11 million for the 2026 season. His cap hit will pick up on the back end, though, rising to $33 million in 2027. Trading him after June first would lower his 2026 cap to $6 million in dead cap, also allowing them to avoid paying his $23 million base salary in 2027. The biggest downside to trading Waddle is stripping your current quarterback or future quarterback of quality receiving weapons.
The biggest question is what to do with Tua? The ideal outcome would be a post-June 1st trade. Unfortunately, no team is going to take a chance on Tua with his current contract. Cutting him would have the Dolphins eat a massive $99 million dead cap hit. His contract runs until 2028, where his cap hit would be $65 million. A significant part of the Dolphins’ future will be tied to how they decide to handle the Tua situation. It’s time to move on, but having a player account for so much of the cap that isn’t a starter is ludicrous. The easiest path forward is most likely to call the 2026 season a wash and eat the dead cap this year. Assuming the Dolphins wouldn’t win more than a few games, this would land them with a top draft pick for 2027 along with Tua’s massive contract off the books. Regardless, a new era is beginning in Miami, and what happens next will have a lasting effect.
