Where Can the Twins Turn After Potentially Losing Their Ace for the 2026 Season?
The Minnesota Twins organization received devastating news on Tuesday, the day after their first full squad workout. Arguably, their top starting pitcher, Pablo Lopez, suffered a significant tear in his UCL, and season-ending surgery is very much on the table. This is according to Jeremy Zoll, the club’s general manager. On Monday, the day of the team’s first full squad workout, Lopez stepped off the field during live ABs due to feeling some elbow soreness. He went in for an MRI, as the team was hoping that they were just being cautious and it would not lead to a significant injury. The results of the MRI were revealed on Tuesday; it showed that he had a “significant tear” in his UCL. The worst-case scenario became a reality. Lopez is hoping for a miracle that he won’t need surgery after he gets the results of a second opinion, but it’s more than likely that his 2026 season is over before it even started.
The main reason Twins fans had some hope that the team could compete for a playoff spot in 2026 was because of their deep and talented starting pitching staff. Their rotation was going to feature two proven top-tier starting pitchers in Lopez and Joe Ryan. Lopez, when healthy last season, was phenomenal, pitching to a 2.74 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 75 innings. Ryan also had the best season of his career, making the all-star team while pitching to a 3.42 ERA, with 194 strikeouts in 171 innings. They will still have last year’s all-star anchoring the staff, but there isn’t another proven front-end-of-the-rotation starter on the Twins roster currently. That’s not to say that there aren't guys on the team who could break out next season and become a top-tier starting pitcher.
Taj Bradley is a name that comes to mind when you think of a young starter who could take that next step. The Twins acquired him from the Tampa Bay Rays during their trade deadline fire sale last season. Bradley is a former top-20 overall prospect, and he’s still only 24. He also already has plenty of big league experience under his belt, making a total of 73 starts in the majors. While his career 4.86 ERA isn’t an incredibly impressive mark, he does have some underlying numbers that show that he’s capable of pitching at a much higher level. Bradley has a career 9.6 K/9 and has well-above-average velocity for a starter. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph last season, which was in the 80th percentile.
Another starting pitcher that the team acquired at the deadline last season that Twins fans have high hopes for is 24-year-old right-hander Mick Abel. He was one of the two top prospects they received from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Jhoan Duran trade. It's hard to find a pitcher that was better at the Triple-A level than Abel was last season. He won the International League Pitcher of the Year Award after recording a 2.20 ERA in 18 starts, while striking out 114 batters in 98.1 innings. The 24-year-old struggled when he reached the majors with a 6.23 ERA in 10 starts. With how impressive his minor league numbers are, it's more than fair to expect better results from Abel in the majors with a larger sample size.
The Twins also have some starters that have already been part of their rotation over the last few seasons that they will be counting on to make improvements. Barring another addition, Bailey Ober should be in line to be the Twins' second starter behind Ryan next season. Ober has been a very good major league starter in past seasons, particularly in 2023 and 2024. In both seasons, Ober had an ERA under four, along with above-league-average strikeout numbers, and also limited walks. The 2025 season was a different story for Ober, as he had an ERA above five for the first time in his career. His strikeout numbers tanked significantly, going from a 9.6 K/9 in 2024 to a 7.4 K/9 in 2025. Ober suffered a hip injury in early July that derailed his season. His velocity dropped as the season went on. He had never been a pitcher who blew away hitters with his fastball, but his average velocity on his four-seamer went from 91.7 in 2024 down to 90.3 in 2025. The Twins will be relying on Ober more than ever next season. It will be crucial for him to get back to the level he was at in 2024.
Simeon Woods Richardson is another starter the Twins will rely on more than ever in 2026. The 25-year-old has been a solid back-end of the rotation arm for Minnesota in each of the last two seasons, posting an ERA just above four. As it stands right now, he’ll likely slot in as their third starter. Woods Richardson will look to build off his impressive finish to last season. In his final five starts, he had a 2.33 ERA with an opponent slash line of .140/.221/.258.
Zebby Matthews is another young starter that the Twins organization has high hopes for. Before the Lopez injury news, it was unclear whether or not he’d have a spot in the Twins rotation, but it seems all but certain now that he’ll be in the back end of it. Matthews has definitely struggled at the big league level in his young career. In 25 career major league starts, he has a 5.56 ERA over 117 innings. The stuff hasn’t been an issue, though, for him. Matthew’s slider could already be one of the best pitches in the game. He frequently throws it over 90 mph, and he had a stuff + of 121, with 100 being league average on that pitch last season. Opposing hitters also batted .150 against it. Locating his fastball was his biggest issue; although it averaged 96.2 and had a stuff+ of 107, opposing batters crushed it because it was thrown in hittable locations far too often. Hitters had a .357 batting average against it last season. Matthews has all the makings of being a top starting pitcher at the big league level; he just has some adjustments that need to be made.
It’s not preposterous to think that the Twins could look to add another starting pitcher to their staff via the free agent market. The club had already recently shown interest in Framber Valdez before he ultimately signed with the Detroit Tigers. This was also before they knew of Lopez having any sort of injury. The remaining free agent starting pitching options aren’t fantastic by any means, but there are still some starters left on the market that could make a difference. Lucas Giolito is the name that’s gotten the most attention. He’s coming off a really good season with the Boston Red Sox, where he had an ERA below 3.50 for the first time in a full season since 2019, when he finished sixth in Cy Young voting with the Chicago White Sox. Giolito had some of the lowest strikeout numbers of his career with just a 7.5 K/9, and he also issued plenty of free passes with a 3.6 BB/9. He still found a way to be an effective pitcher, though, a big reason for his success was his .219 opponent batting average with RISP. Giolito will be 31 on Opening Day, so it's plausible to think that he’s still got a few good seasons left in the tank.
Zack Littell is another younger free agent option that has gotten a lot of attention recently. Littell was with the Rays for the first half of the season before being dealt to the Cincinnati Reds at the deadline. He did not miss a start last season and pitched a total of 186.2 innings. Few pitchers better fit the definition of a pitch-to-contact arm than Littell. The 30-year-old didn’t rack up many strikeouts with just a 6.3 K/9, and he also had a minuscule walk rate of just 1.5 BB/9 on the season. This approach worked out well for him, as he had a 3.81 ERA on the year with a 3.2 bWAR. The Twins would certainly be pleased if he put up similar numbers again next season if they were to bring him in.
41-year-old Max Scherzer is also still left on the open market. It would be hard to see him finishing his career in Minnesota, but it doesn’t seem as if he’s had a ton of interest this offseason, so he might not have many other choices. Scherzer is a guaranteed first-ballot Hall of Famer and is one of the best starting pitchers of this generation. He’s just not the same pitcher he was four or five years ago. The eight-time all-star signed a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays before last season, and he was not all that great, making 17 starts and pitching to a 5.19 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk numbers were still decent, but he did not do a great job at limiting hard contact. If the Twins did bring him in, it would be hard to argue against not just giving those innings to one of the young guys. However, you can never have too much depth, and the Blue Jays still liked Scherzer’s arm enough to start him three times in the playoffs last season, two of those starts being in the World Series.
Minnesota fans can agree that it's been very hard to have the same positive outlook or any positive outlook at all next season after hearing the recent devastating news regarding Lopez. Twins fans knew that they had to add to the lineup this offseason, as well as the bullpen, but the starting rotation had been the group that everyone had the most confidence in. The dream of having Ryan and Lopez anchoring the rotation for the entirety of next season is gone. The Twins will certainly need Ober to return to his previous form, and young arms like Bradley, Abel, Woods Richardson, and Matthews will have even more pressure to deliver a breakout season. There are options on the free agent market if ownership wants to prove that they are, in fact, serious about being competitive. There’s still plenty of talent on this season’s Twins team, but it’s hard to have the same hopeful spirit of Minnesota getting back into the postseason after being informed of Lopez’s crushing injury, which will have him on the shelf indefinitely.
