Which Woman Could Raise the Cup Above the Rest from Down Under in 2026?
Melbourne hosts the first Grand Slam of the year, officially marking the start of the tennis season for all in 2026. The women’s tour has been on the wilder side in recent years, but it seems to be finding a new normal again. The Australian Open has seen a few wild card champions before, given how early in the year it is and with so many factors to deal with, some “surprise” champs have prevailed; former top-ranked Ashleigh Barty of Australia, and American Sofia Kenin, to name a few.
Ever since Serena Williams’ retirement, the WTA hasn’t seen any one true dominator holding the helm. There isn’t even really a set, competitive court, one for fans to properly take sides as they used to, though it’s slowly coming back, returning to what it once was. The top ranking is relayed between two women throughout the year, and the fact that in the last decade, nearly anybody who enters a Grand Slam could win it is entirely possible, is only just entertaining enough to engage; better than the game of Grand Slam hot potato between only two, happening over on the ATP side.
Last year, American Madison Keys emerged victorious amid stiff competition, marking her first impressive, yet recognizable, performance in quite some time, since a French Open Semifinal in 2018 and a US Open Final in 2017. It could be said that she’s another of those so-called surprises, though she is a fearsome player, terrifyingly powerful, even though it’s that same power that undoes her at times. Keys had a relatively unremarkable 2025, aside from the AO Championship, winning the precursory Adelaide 500 Open, and participating in her more-or-less booked Riyadh spot, which her two strong Australia performances booked her. On paper and historically, one shouldn’t bet on a repeat win here. On one hand, she clearly favors the Aussie sun, and I can tell you as well as anyone, hard hitters love a bright blue, fresh hard court. Yet, it would seem that from her stats, she takes a few months or years after a good run to maintain a fragile consistency again, enough for a Grand Slam, at the very least. Not impossible for her to do, but so soon? I’d wager unlikely.
Someone with a strong chance, if all goes well, is American darling Coco Gauff. She ended last year with one Grand Slam, several hard-court titles, and a new Open Era record. Gauff has already begun the year with a bang, getting used to the conditions and excelling in the United Cup for the USA. She did lose in the semis, but it was to the eventual victors, Poland, a competitive showing. In that United Cup, she performed incredibly; doubles has never been a weak point; the USA was fortunate to have her expertise, but surprising improvements showed up in her singles game as well. The American’s service was reliable. Her double faults, which have long been known to be a costly anchor, did not bleed her dry of points, and better yet, she’s found a way to tame her serves up aggressively, while increasing consistency, with net gain. It seems that the coaching change since the US Open is slowly but surely working well for her, and her spirits have been calm and collected since the United Cup. Gauff has two Grand Slams; French Open last year and the US Open in 2023. She’s in line for an Australian, and with such robust changes to her already difficult-to-beat game falling in place, I don’t see why one more hardcourt accolade can’t join her wins.
Finally, regarding being overdue, Aryna Sabalenka certainly fits that bill and is the strongest contender for the Slam. She won it last in 2023 and 2024, and would have won it again if not for Keys’ upset last year. The very fact that the Belarusian first-rank sat in the final for three consecutive years is more than enough to show ownership, but not an entitled one. Sabalenka works hard to get there, and has been a permanent fixture in almost every major slam’s final and Semifinal for 2025; if not the winner. Even if not my personal pick, she cannot be ignored or left out of the conversation; she’s managed to reel in both her explosive game and nature into something she can wield as the weapons that they are. It’s been a long time since anyone has seen her exploding in fury to her detriment, and it’s exactly why she’s seen a long line of great results without fail. The top seeds will be playing from today, staggering days to match their places staggered across the draw. Each day and round, they will drift closer, and it remains to be seen if this prediction holds. Until then, the luck of the draw, the unpredictability of the WTA, and how economically each of them can win their games will all come into play to help them.
