Who’s Safe and Who’s at Risk for 2026?
At the halfway point of the Formula 1 calendar, teams are evaluating what has gone well for them so far. Teams have started to look ahead to next year, and drivers who aren’t performing to standard are at risk of losing their seats. F1 is highly competitive as there will be only 22 spots next season. With only a handful of seats available, the opportunity to race is both limited and valuable.
Safe - Oscar Piastri
Currently leading the Driver’s Championship, Oscar Piastri is dominating every race on the calendar. In the season’s first race in Australia, Piastri had his worst performance, finishing P9. Since then, Piastri hasn’t finished below P4 in any race. He has won six of the 14 races so far and been on the podium for 12 of them. Piastri is sweeping away a clear path to becoming the 2025 World Champion with 284 points so far, and McLaren will surely keep him around for next year.
At Risk - Yuki Tsunoda
Yuki Tsunoda appears to be struggling after his promotion to Red Bull. Starting the season at Red Bull’s second team, the Racing Bulls, Tsunoda became Max Verstappen’s teammate after two races in the 2025 season. In comparison to Piastri’s worst finish being P9, Tsunoda has never finished higher than P9. He has only accumulated 10 points in the first half of the season by finishing ninth once and tenth twice. He hasn’t lived up to the promotion Red Bull gave him, and may not be one of their drivers in the future.
Safe - Max Verstappen
The reigning four-time world champion has nothing to sweat about losing his seat for 2026. Max Verstappen has been previously rumored to make the switch from Red Bull to Mercedes AMG-Petronas. Verstappen recently responded by shutting down the rumors and said he is already “discussing with the team the plans, the things that we want to change next year, so that means I’m also staying with the team for next year.” As Red Bull’s prized driver, Verstappen's position is rock-solid even with the leadership change.
At Risk - Nico Hulkenberg
Nico Hulkenberg has had one of his best seasons in Formula 1. At Silverstone, Hulkenberg placed on the podium for the first time in his 14 racing seasons. However, he is currently driving with Kick Sauber, who will transition to Cadillac next season. Hulkenberg is almost 38 years old, and Cadillac may want to have younger, more consistent drivers for their inaugural season. Hulkenberg could very well stay in Formula 1 into his 40s, but with lots of younger new talent, he will need to perform strongly in the second half of this season to stand out.
Safe - Kimi Antonelli
As the best-performing rookie, Kimi Antonelli will likely be back at Mercedes next year. With 64 Driver’s Championship points, Antonelli is in seventh place behind the seven-time world champion, Lewis Hamilton. Antonelli started the season very strong and consistent, finishing in the top 11 in his first six races. Antonelli earned his first podium after only 10 races as an F1 driver. However, he does struggle with consistency and has not finished four races. Antonelli will likely continue to improve and be a strong, competitive driver in his future racing years.
At Risk - Franco Colapinto
The Alpine rookie driver has had a difficult first season. Starting as the reserve driver, Franco Colapinto replaced Jack Doohan after just six races. Since then, Colapinto hasn’t performed strongly and is the only active driver with 0 points. He has consistently finished at the back of the pack, with his best finish being P13 at Monaco. Since Alpine switched Doohan out for not scoring any points, it’s hard to imagine Colapinto will be offered another chance next year.
