Why a Popular Red Bull Driver Has a Slim Path to the 2025 Title
Following a chaotic Baku Grand Prix that saw Oscar Piastri retire on the opening lap, Lando Norris was unable to break into the top five. Max Verstappen, meanwhile, dominated from pole to take the crucial win. The 2025 title fight is not exactly set in stone. Suddenly, the unthinkable does not look entirely impossible: Max Verstappen, in a Red Bull car that has been thought of as the second or even third fastest, remains in striking distance.
Verstappen sits 69 points behind Piastri with seven races and three sprint events still to go. The math is simple, but a long shot. A race win earns a driver 25 points, with second earning 18, and third earning 15. The three remaining sprint races offer eight points per win, so 24 possible sprint points in total. Furthermore, the seven remaining races offer 25 points per win, meaning altogether, there are 199 points available throughout the rest of the season. That means Verstappen can still overtake both McLaren drivers if two things happen. First, the Dutch driver has to maximize his results at every remaining race and sprint race. Second, the two McLaren drivers must consistently fail to finish first or second. That would chip away at their advantage just enough for Max to close the gap.
What makes this scenario even slightly believable is Red Bull's recent resurgence under new team principal Laura Mechis. The RB21 has looked sharper, showing genuine pace again, notably in the recent Monza and Baku races. Furthermore, Verstappen has demonstrated that if the car is even close to competitive, he can extract everything from it, putting himself on the same level as the McLarens. History suggests that momentum can shift late in a season. Circuits like Mexico, Brazil, and Las Vegas have often suited Verstappen’s driving style, and strategic missteps or reliability issues have sometimes haunted McLaren in high-pressure moments. If Verstappen strings together a winning streak while McLaren’s drivers trip over each other, the improbability could become plausible.
Make no mistake: this is still a long-shot scenario. The MCL39 has been a rocket ship all season, putting them 333 points ahead of Mercedes in the Constructors’ Championship, and it's difficult to imagine their form collapsing overnight. Verstappen, meanwhile, cannot afford another DNF or off-weekend. Realistically, it is seemingly more likely that one of the two McLaren drivers will receive their first World Championship this season. Yet, as long as the points are still on the table, the door remains cracked open for Max Verstappen.
