Why the 2026 French Open Will Make History No Matter Who Wins

Carlos Alcaraz has recently opted out of participating in the 2026 French Open, dubbed Roland Garros. His exit comes after his withdrawal from the Barcelona Open due to a wrist injury. This shakes up the field as Alcaraz was the favorite to win the tournament, despite being ranked second in the world. Roland Garros is the only Grand Slam to be played on clay, and this surface has been a player’s strong suit. Alcaraz won the French Open the past two years, albeit in hard-fought sets. He is one of three players currently on the ATP tour to have won Roland Garros before, along with Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka, both of whom are more than a decade older than Alcaraz. Fans started seeing him as the new ‘King of the Clay,’ a nickname used for Rafael Nadal, the last tennis player who dominated clay court tennis. Now that Alcaraz isn’t a contender for the title, who does this leave the door open for?

The conversation cannot continue without mentioning Jannik Sinner, currently ranked first in the world by the ATP. Since Alcaraz’s exit from the tournament, Sinner has been the immediate favorite to win the title for a few reasons. The first obvious reason is that he is ranked first in the world; he's the most dominant current player participating in this tournament. Usually, his only contemporary is Alcaraz in the season. The two of them each have 7000 more ATP points than third-ranked Alexander Zverev. Their dominance in the sport is nearly unheard of in the history of tennis. Beyond this, Sinner has been doing exceptionally well in the Masters 1000 Tournaments that have been leading up to Roland Garros. So far in 2026, he has won the three Masters 1000 Tournaments he participated in. This has included the Monte-Carlo masters, where he even beat Alcaraz on a clay court, proving his worth on clay, and providing another reason he’s the favorite for this tournament. Sinner winning the title is the most likely outcome in Paris this year. A win for him would complete his career slam and be poetic in his rivalry with Alcaraz. Alcaraz recently completed his career slam earlier this year in Sinner’s best tournament, the Australian Open, and Sinner would be doing the same thing in France.

The next player gunning for the title is Zverev, ranked third behind Alcaraz and Sinner. The 28-year-old has been in the top 10 for a while now. Zverev won more than 24 Masters 1000 titles and Olympic Gold Medals, but hasn’t won any Grand Slams. This is his golden opportunity for his first Grand Slam title. Zverev’s problem has been a mental game for a long time, as he tends to get overwhelmed as the play goes on, something that Alcaraz is good at exploiting, as that was shown to be a major threat to Zverev in Paris. The 28-year-old has played against Sinner many times and has even beaten him on a clay court before. That match was three years ago, however, and Sinner has not lost to Zverev since then. It wouldn’t be easy, but the 28-year-old could make his own history if he won at Roland Garros.

The final major contender is Djokovic. His story leading up to the French Open this year is the most interesting. He hasn’t competed much in the season so far, electing to take a break after the Indian Wells Open in early March. This is not only because of a minor shoulder injury he was recovering from, but also because Djokovic decided to save his energy in order to put up a fight in Paris, prioritizing Grand Slams over Masters 1000 Tournaments. For Roland Garros itself, Djokovic has won the tournament three times before, even beating prime Nadal on clay. Djokovic has the skills and experience, but he might not have the stamina to compete for too long. Djokovic is nearing his 40’s, a good retirement age for a professional tennis player, and his body cannot consistently keep up with younger players. He’s said that he cannot win against both Sinner and Alcaraz in the same tournament back-to-back. His Australian Open performance is proof of this; he was able to defeat Sinner but lost to Alcaraz in the finals. Now with Alcaraz out of the picture, Djokovic’s chances at winning his 25th Grand Slam title are higher than they’ve ever been. In tennis, it’s a good rule of thumb to never rule out Djokovic because he’ll prove you wrong.