Will a Walk-Off Win Happen in Martinsville?
The penultimate round of the 2025 NASCAR season is finally here. This weekend, the final spots in the Championship 4 will be filled for the NASCAR Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Craftsman Truck Series. Two places have been locked up in the Cup and Xfinity Series, while just one is locked in for the Truck Series. If any of the drivers not yet locked in win the race, they will qualify for the championship. Otherwise, points will determine the rest. So the question remains: will a walk-off win happen?
Truck Series
There are two drivers on the outside looking in who have more than a realistic chance to win: Layne Riggs and the reigning series champ, Ty Majeski. Majeski has been an ace on the short tracks, having gone up through the short track late model scene to reach the Truck Series. Five of Majeski’s six wins in the series have come at tracks that are a mile in length or less, and he has finished in the top five in two of his Martinsville races. Riggs has been the closest threat Corey Heim, who has 10 wins and is the only driver locked in the Championship 4, has faced this season. Riggs’ three wins are the second most of any full-time truck driver this season, and of his five wins, four have come on tracks a mile or less in length. If anyone can rise above the cutline in the Truck Series, it will more than likely be one of these two, if not both.
Xfinity Series
Connor Zilisch has dominated the 2025 Xfinity Series season, with 10 wins, a streak of 17 straight top-five finishes, and a spot in the Championship 4 already locked up. He will join his teammate and 2024 champ Justin Allgaier in the title race. Their current opponents are RCR’s Jesse Love, who sits 40 points above the cutline, and JR Motorsports’ Carson Kvapil, who is 11 points above the cutline. Of the four drivers on the outside, the one with the best shot to win may be Sammy Smith. In six Martinsville races, Smith has five top-10s and three top-fives. Last year, Smith needed to win to make the title race, but fell one spot short. He’s been in this situation before and has ended up on the losing end. This could be the time the Iowa-native puts it all together to make his first-career Championship 4.
Cup Series
All four drivers outside of the Championship 4 entering Martinsville are in must-win situations. Though some can still mathematically find their way in, it is highly unlikely to happen. Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson enter 37 and 36 points above the cutline, so they would be comfortable if no one below wins the race. However, if one does, they will be in a tight battle for the final spot. Of the four drivers outside, Ryan Blaney looks to be the biggest threat, as he has won this exact race the past two seasons. He went on to win the 2023 title and finished second in the championship a season ago. The Number 12 team had a strong start to the Playoffs by winning in New Hampshire, but has cooled off recently, as if waiting to win this race for a third year in a row to clinch a trip to Phoenix.
